Resource availability will not be a major global constraint

The resource scarcity perceived in the 1970s did not occur as originally assumed. With technological and economic development, estimates of the ultimately available energy resource base will continue to increase. A variety of assumptions about the timing and extent of new discoveries of fossil energy reserves and resources (conventional and unconventional), and about improvements in the economics of their recoverability, are reflected in the range of scenarios reported here. All, however, indicate that economic development over the next century will not be constrained by geological resources. Regional shortages and price increases can occur, due to the unequal distribution of fossil resources, but globally they are not a constraint. Environmental concerns, financing, and technological needs appear more likely sources of future limits. The short-term volatility of international politics, speculation, and business cycles will periodically upset the long-term expansion of resources. It is noteworthy that no regional review voiced concerns, so dominant even a decade ago, about imminent resource scarcity. Another change in emphasis - in agreement with the global analysis - is that resource availability is no longer seen as geologically preordained. It is viewed more as a function of the incentives and policies put in place for exploring and developing resources, constructing the necessary long-distance transport infrastructures, and, above all, attracting capital to energy investments. All are necessary to translate potentially vast geological resources into economically and technically recoverable reserves.

Import dependence and export possibilities were important concerns in several regions. The MEA regional review voiced concern about medium-term export potentials, particularly should regional energy demands grow much faster than anticipated in the scenarios, thus ``crowding out'' possible export volumes. Similar trends were projected in the PAS regional review. Concerns about import dependence were particularly strong in WEU, a region traditionally heavily dependent on energy imports. The NAM regional review expressed concern about coal-intensive developments in Scenario A2, with its enormous synfuel production and exports. This concern raises the question of whether NAM would be prepared to invest in the massive coal development and synfuel exports associated with Scenario A2. More generally, with the exception of CPA and SAS, coal resources are concentrated in the affluent North, regions that may not necessarily depend on revenue generated from energy exports.

Overall, the regional reviews concurred with the global perspective that long-term revenues for energy exporters will remain solid. Oil export revenues for MEA are high in all scenarios: up to US$300 billion² by 2020 (and even higher thereafter) in Case A, some US$200 billion in Case B, and US$140 billion in Case C. The region need not fear revenue losses due to policy measures aimed at reducing CO₂emissions in industrialized countries. Even in the ecologically driven Case C, combined oil and gas export revenues are higher than in 1990. For FSU, gas exports consistently increase in all scenarios through 2020, reaching around 300 billion cubic meters per year with revenues increasing to about US$50 billion, five times the 1990 value. Beyond 2020 exports and revenues increase further in Scenarios A2 and C1 and Case B, with revenues exceeding US$100 billion, 10 times the 1990 value.