Energy end-use patterns will converge, even as energy supply structures diverge

The six scenarios indicate that the historical drive toward ever more convenient, flexible, and clean fuels reaching the consumer can continue for a wide range of possible future energy supply structures. In all scenarios there is a shift toward electricity and toward higher-quality fuels, such as natural gas, oil products, methanol, and, eventually, hydrogen. In contrast to these converging trends, primary energy supply structures diverge, particularly after 2020. Fossil sources continue to provide most of the world's energy well into the next century but to a varying extent across the scenarios. There is a shift away from noncommercial and mostly unsustainable uses of biomass, and direct uses of coal virtually disappear. Sustainable uses of renewables including modern biomass come to hold a prominent place in all scenarios. They reach the consumer as electricity, liquids, or gases, rather than as solids.

Among regions primary energy supply opportunities vary greatly in the scenarios, with some regions having a much wider range of options than others. This global result was echoed in the regional reviews. NAM has the widest range of possibilities - wider even than the world as a whole. While recognizing this range of possibilities, the NAM regional review nonetheless expressed clear preferences for ``middle-of-the-road'' energy development avoiding extreme reliance on particular resources and technologies, whether focused on coal, nuclear, or renewables. The WEU regional review also preferred a diversity of energy sources, especially to limit import dependence.

At the other end of the spectrum, for MEA all six scenarios are largely dominated by oil and gas, and the regional review identified a clearly preferred scenario: the high-growth, oil- and gas-intensive Scenario A1. Similarly, PAO, as a high-income region with an outstanding record of promoting improved conservation, efficiency, and diversification beyond fossil fuels, is the region best positioned for a high-growth transition beyond fossil fuels (i.e., Scenario A3). This global conclusion was largely shared by the regional review. Given PAO's importance as a source of Asian investment, and the importance of early investments, PAO's choices are likely to exert a strong influence on the future of other Asian regions.