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Europes Population at a Turning Point by Wolfgang Lutz, Brian C. O'Neill, Sergei Scherbov Go to the Science Homepage to download the Summary, and the Full text; or go to the order form at IIASA (if you have problems visit IIASA's Publication Department. Low birthrates in Europe resulting in part from the current trend toward later childbearing have begun to generate what demographers call "negative population momentum." This implies that even if over the next decades the average number of children per woman increases to two, the population will continue to shrink (assuming no migration), and future aging will be exacerbated. These
are the key findings of IIASA's Population Project
and the Austrian Academy
of Sciences published in the March 28th issue of Science. Governments
might look at polices that give women more options for planning when to
have children, suggest the authors. Possible starting points: childcare,
labor laws, part-time work options, or subsidized housing for young parents.
Press release (pdf).
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