Risk, Policy and Vulnerability

 

  

The long-term aim of the IIASA Program on Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) is to conduct conceptual and applied analyses that contribute to decreasing the risk and vulnerability of societies and ecosystems, and promoting their adaptation and resilience, to stresses imposed or aggravated by global change phenomena. Our research is relevant mainly, but not exclusively, to developing countries. By addressing the social, economic and ecological system, and considering multiple stresses and system resilience, vulnerability as a research-organizing concept is more complex than risk. Addressing this complexity is the fundamental challenge of this research program. The specific goals of the program are fourfold:

  • to advance the conceptual and methodological development of risk and vulnerability research;

  • to carry out selected risk and vulnerability assessments;

  • to carry out integrative stakeholder-led case studies;

  • and to develop interactive tools that can provide training on vulnerability and adaptation.

The program builds on the methodologies, activities and experience gained from the previous IIASA Risk, Modeling and Society (RMS) Program, and integrates across other IIASA programs and links closely with the vulnerability/resilience research communities.

News & Highlights of 2011:

The weakness of centralized drought management: the perception of Iranian farmers
A new paper by Masoud Yazdanpanah and Fereshteh Karbalaee has been accepted for oral presentation at the 2nd Conference of the International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM Society), which will be held at the University of Southern California (USC), Los Angeles, on 14-16 July, 2011.

Paper recently published in Energy Policy
A paper by Johan Lilliestam and Saskia Ellenbeck, recently published in Energy Policy, investigates European vulnerability to energy weapon-style political extortion, should Europe choose to import large amounts of solar electricity from North Africa (as proposed by Desertec and others). It finds that Europe is vulnerable in the case that all North African countries coordinate their energy weapon action, but not  if each exporting country acts alone.

Hedging against disaster: pooled risk management for megacities
By 2030 some 500 million Asians are expected to live in megacities - urban areas with populations exceeding 10 million - that are at risk from earthquakes, cyclones, and flooding. IIASA researchers Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler and Reinhard Mechler, in a paper in Cities, examine city-level risk management and suggest that Asian megacities can pool risks using a model similar to one used by Caribbean nations.

Insurance against losses from natural disasters: evidence, gaps and the way forward
A recent paper by Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, Reinhard Mechler and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler published in the first issue of the new Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management investigated recent experiences with insurance and other-risk financing instruments in developing countries to provide insights on the effectiveness of insurance for reducing economic insecurity. Specific examples of public-private insurance programs for households/businesses, farms and governments are described, including their limitations, especially in light of recent post-Katrina experiences in the US. By examining the costs, benefits and risks of public-private risk-financing programs, insights are provided on the effectiveness of insurance as a mechanism for providing economic security to vulnerable communities and governments.

New article in Energy Policy
A regional study by Kerstin Damerau, Keith Williges, Anthony Patt and Paul Gauché, published in Energy Policy,  investigates the costs of sustainable water use for concentrating solar power (CSP) in North Africa. They find that desalination and alternative cooling systems can assure a sustainable water supply, while on large-scale the associated cost penalties appear minor.

Global Corruption Report 2011
Following the study on barriers for deployment of renewable energy sources in the North African region, Nadejda Komendantova and Anthony Patt have conducted further research on governance and regulatory issues connected with construction of concentrated solar power plants. The results of this research were published by Transparency International in the Global Corruption Report 2011. The research quantifies the economic costs that risks of complex or corruption bureaucratic procedures have on internal rates of return, expected by private investors in regards to concentrated solar power projects in North Africa.

Research Published in Transparency International Blog
From June 2010-March 2011 Nadejda Komendantova, in cooperation with Anthony Patt and Stefan Pfenninger, conducted research on corruption risks in the North African region. This research evaluates perceptions of stakeholders of different types of risks connected with bureaucratic corruption versus risks connected with “grand political corruption”. Transparency International published these results in its blog with the reference to the current political changes in the North African region.

2010
Contribution to World Development Report 2010
The Mediterranean Area Renewables Generation Estimation Model (MARGE) 

 

Responsible for this page: Jun Watabe
Last updated: 31 May 2011

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