Future impacts of Climate Change

As of January 2006 the RMS program has changed to the Risk and Vulnerability program.

Emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are predicted to lead to a significant anthropogenic influence on the climate; repercussions of the climate effect with the oceanic circulation and the dynamic of the polar ice-masses are to be expected. By 2100 global temperatures are expected to increase in the range of 1.4 to 5.8oC and the sea level is expected to rise about 9-88 cm. Already today, changes in precipitation patterns in some regions have been detected and, sea level rise during tide amounted to 10 to 20 cm in the course of the 20th century. Also, studying data on damages due to natural disasters expressed as percent of world GDP, an upward trend in the climate-related damages can be discerned while the damages due to other events like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are characterized by large spikes, but not a substantial increase over time.

Research in this activity aims at shedding more light on potential future changes in weather related events as well as analyzing loss-sharing mechanisms for those potentially causing climate change and those predicted to most severely be affected by it.

In a first step, data sets on past impacts will be analyzed more closely for general trends concerning changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Furthermore, an effort will be made to forecast increases in the exposed elements population and capital to come to an understanding of potential increases in damages due to these trends alone and finally add to such estimates potential additional effects due to climate change.

For more information, contact Reinhard Mechler

Responsible for this page: Karolina Werner
Last updated: 02 Jan 2006