Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability and impacts

As of January 2006 the RMS program has changed to the Risk and Vulnerability program.

Experts estimate that a major earthquake will affect Istanbul over the next 30 years, with a probability approaching 60 per cent, making Istanbul one of the disaster hotspots worldwide. The Earthquake Istanbul project in collaboration with CEDIM (Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology), Karlsruhe and the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam aims at estimating the vulnerability of the Istanbul region and the potential direct and indirect economic effects due to such an earthquake in the greater Istanbul region.

The modeling of the time-dependency of risk with regard to the future development of the megacity Istanbul is one important aspect. This involves understanding the dynamic nature of hazard, vulnerability and the exposure of population and assets. Outcomes of this project will inform policy makers and stakeholder about the need and potential of risk reducing and financing measures in Istanbul.

An activity sponsored by the German GTZ (Gesellschaft fuer technische Zusammenarbeit) will estimate the costs of natural disasters and identify the net benefits of disaster risk management measures at the project level. In the context of scarce resources, conducting a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for potential risk management projects can help in selecting the most profitable projects in terms of damages avoided and rejecting those projects that are not cost-effective.

This study aims at evaluating the potential of applying CBA in project appraisal in the context of natural disasters. The report discusses the reasons for the lack of CBA in the context of disaster risk and project appraisal and analyses the relevant methods and their applicability. The study includes desk-based research as well as project visits to Peru and Indonesia in order to test the feasibility of CBA approaches.

Presentation at World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe, January 2005

Another activity funded by the Austrian Nationalbank will develop a general framework for the empirical study of the relationship between catastrophic risk, technology absorption and long-term economic growth. The stduy will utilize cross-country and time series data on catastrophic incidence and import-embodied R&D stocks. The objective is to assess the long-term implications of disasters on economic growth and the development of economic sectors, including the distributional aspects.

This project is sponsored by the Austrian Nationalbank and conducted in collaboration with the FOR project and the University of Vienna.

For more information, contact Reinhard Mechler

Responsible for this page: Karolina Werner
Last updated:02 Jan 2006