Understanding the Dynamics of Technological Change

"Notwithstanding the powerful empirical data underlying experience or learning curves, the phenomenon remains a black box. We need to know more about its underlying causes. Are the improvements due to innovation, economies of scale, learning by doing in manufacturing, etc.? Without a deeper understanding we run both the risk of blind trend extrapolation as well as viewing technological change solely through the lens of demand pull. Such simplistic perceptions have been responsible for some of the biggest technology blunders in history."
Participant at the workshop on Induced Technological Change
and the Environment, held at IIASA, June 1999

Objectives: Examine in more detail selected cases of improvements in technology performance and costs (as well as cases where these did not take place) for their underlying causes.

Illustration: DRAMS (dynamic random access memory); Additional examples (forthcoming on this page) will include military aircraft, wind turbines, photovoltaics, and French nuclear reactors.

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Last updated:13 Jun 2006