Research models, tools, and data
Stochastic Quasigradient (SQG) methods: Applications
Stochastic Quasi-Gradient (SQG) methods have been developed for solving general optimization problems without exact calculation of objective function and constraints (let alone of their derivatives). SQG methods enable a sequential revision of approximate solutions towards the optimal using newly acquired information on the system, obtained via either direct on-line observations or(and) simulations. More
Consistent algorithm for linking distributed models under asymmetric information
The linkage algorithms solve the problem of linking models, e.g. sectorial and/or regional, into an inter-sectorial inter-regional integrated model. Linkage enables to avoid “hard linking” of models in a single code, which saves the programming time and enables parallel distributed computations of individual models instead of a large scale integrated model. Models linkage preserves the structure of the original models taking into account critically important details, which are usually missing in aggregate models More
Qualitative systems analysis tools to inform strategic planning for policymaking
The current state of the world affairs calls for a revival of systems thinking to improve decision-making. Recognizing that the tightening of socio-economic links heightens the need for holistic responses, that disciplinary and sectorial solutions are of limited effectiveness and efficiency, and that big data is not generating integrative perspectives by itself, highlights the need for policymakers to become thoroughly familiar with the promises and pitfalls of systems analysis. Challenges are systemic, dynamic, and interconnected, and systems analysis, coupled with an improved anticipation, provides a coherent methodology and necessary tools to develop new approaches so urgently required for more coherent and effective policy planning. More
Integrated Risk and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
We are developing and applying a range of methods for integrated multi-attribute evaluation under risk, subject to incomplete or imperfect information, and evaluations of decision situations using imprecise utilities, probabilities, and weights, as well as qualitative estimates between these components derived from sets of weight, utility and probability measures. To avoid some mathematical aggregation problems when handling set membership functions and similar, we use higher-order distributions for better discrimination between the possible outcomes. More
Behavioral economics methods for evaluation of cognitive and behavioral patterns of individual decision-making
Contested policy issues require understanding of behavioral factors of various stakeholders who are participating in decision-making processes and are affected by policy interventions. Behavioral goals govern or ‘frame’ what people attend to, what knowledge and attitudes become cognitively most accessible, how people evaluate various aspects of the situation, and what alternatives are being considered. More
Wicked policy problems and participatory qualitative system modeling
The policy planners have a dual challenge – at the same time they have to solve usual for them problems which existed for a long time and they also have to deal with everyday emergency problems, which are changing according to the conditions of the environment. To solve this challenge, they frequently use existing solutions as well as past traditions. Such approach filters new observations and solution ideas. Participatory qualitative systems analysis is one of the several techniques to solve this dual challenge in policy planning. More
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