The current foresight methods are mainly based on descriptive scenario building which provide decision-makers with a set of narratives of the end states of the alternative futures. Contrary to this, this project focuses on the transition process to those end states.
Practically, the ambition of this project two-fold. Firstly, it aims to produce a computer interactive tool that provides decision-makers with a better understanding on the dynamics of potential futures. The focus of the study is, therefore, on how futures are unfolding, in additon to what may have happended.
Secondly, the project will assist policy planning in testing potential impacts of the different policy options.
The research is a part of the ASA exploratory studies of uncertainty.
This project is based on the previously developed economic Agent-Based Model (ABM) called Dream Valley (DV). The model has been designed to simulate the regional dynamics in case of global (external) shocks of different sort. The primary use of the model is to analyze of the disruptive changes and for testing different policy options used for mitigating the shock impact. The previous case-study was carried out within the project Structural Change of the Finnish Economy – a Systems Approach.
Last edited: 23 October 2017
Program Director and Principal Research Scholar Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Guest Emeritus Research Scholar Cooperation and Transformative Governance Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Research Scholar Cooperation and Transformative Governance Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Research Scholar Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program
2014 - 2015
28 Jul 2014 - 30 Jul 2014
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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