Climate change and malaria incidence in South Africa
Over the next few decades, climatic changes will newly expose large areas around the globe to the threat of tropical malaria by reshaping the ranges of the mosquito species that transmit this parasitic disease and by facilitating transmission between mosquitoes and humans. This will particularly affect certain regions in sub-Saharan Africa, where sanitary conditions, diagnosis chances, and treatment options are not as good as in other parts of the world.
In this project, I will analyze the impacts of temperature, rainfall, and land-use changes on the distribution, activities, and life histories of the three Anopheles species that are mainly responsible for malaria transmission in Africa. On this basis, I will predict malaria incidence over the coming decades in three provinces of South Africa, possibly also taking into account demographic changes.