Demographic scenarios for the EU: Investigating the role of migration

In a context of low fertility, international migration is destined to become the main component of demographic changes in Europe. Projections of future population trends by age and sex in Europe exist but are insufficient when it comes to assessing the likely economic and social impacts of alternative migration scenarios as well as evaluating the broader impacts of migration in Europe. The assessment of the impact of migration on changing population composition is a fundamental prerequisite for the development of appropriate policies responding to the upcoming challenges in that context.

The main purpose of the workshop is to provide a unique occasion for policy-makers and population scientists to exchange and discuss about possible alternative migration scenarios for Europe in terms of both size and composition. These will then be entered into recently developed dynamic microsimulation and multi-dimensional macro projection models. The workshop will start by presenting results from the latest world population projections by education (2018 assessment) and results from a microsimulation projection model for the EU. 

During a lunch-time lecture Wolfgang Lutz will present the CEPAM 2018 assessment that covers demographic scenarios by age, sex, and level of education for all countries with a specific focus on the EU. It is the update from the 2014 projections that were presented in the Oxford University Press volume World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century (eds. W. Lutz, W.P. Butz, S. KC).

World Population Program researchers who contributed to the 2018 assessment will present further results at this workshop:

• Wolfgang Lutz will give an introduction to the discussion of alternative migration scenarios for Europe;
  
• Anne Goujon will lead a discussion with policy makers on migration scenarios in two parallel groups;
  
• Elke Loichinger will discuss the education-specific labor force projections for EU 28 countries;
  
• Alain Belanger, Guillaume Marois and Patrick Sabourin will present the at IIASA developed microsimulations for assessing the integration of migrants in the EU;
  
• Raya Muttarak will give a systematic review of empirical evidence on migration influenced by environmental change in Africa.
  

The workshop will also include technical meetings and panel discussions. Download the workshop program here.

Next, a set of future migration assumptions shall be discussed from the policy making perspective with the goal of developing alternative quantitative migration scenarios corresponding to possible alternative policies that will serve as input for the next round of demographic macro- and micro-simulations for the EU. Policy makers will discuss the issue and exchange their views with the scientists involved in demographic research. Such a broad discussion of future migration will help demographers to provide projections which should better inform the policy making process. 

Last edited: 23 April 2018