20 November 2018 - 21 November 2018
London, UK

Uncertainty and complexity of migration

IIASA researcher Guillaume Marois will discuss microsimulation methods for multidimensional population projections at this international workshop at the British Academy.

© Dwnld777 | Dreamstime.com

© Dwnld777 | Dreamstime.com

Migration is multidimensional, complex and uncertain. These features, alongside with the underpinning agency of actors involved in migration, have been recently gaining prominence in academic literature. These developments parallel the exploration of computer simulations as tools of enquiry for population processes. There is a current need for a discussion on the potential and limits of such computational methods, on their knowledge and data requirements, and on the conditions for their usefulness for supporting migration policy.

The workshop entitled "Uncertainty and Complexity of Migration" will explore these topics and more, in order to identify the best ways of implementing the current cutting-edge research ideas in practice. It will summarise the state of the art in addressing the complexity and uncertainty of migration through formal modelling, and present current research opportunities in this area, and discuss the best ways for modelling migration, directions for data collection, and conditions for making the modelling useful for policy support.

World Population Program researcher Guillaume Marois will give a presentation entitled "Microsimulation methods for multidimensional population projections in Europe" during the session on recent advances in migration modelling on Tuesday, 20 Nov 2018, 3.15pm.

Marois is part of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM), a collaboration between IIASA’s World Population Program and the JRC. He is specialized in demographic projections, microsimulation, spatial analysis, immigration and internal mobility. The CEPAM partnership was launched to provide comprehensive assessments of the drivers of possible future migration to Europe and study the implications of alternative future migration scenarios that could help to inform European policies from 2019 onwards. The book presents an essential background study for that work. 

The workshop is organised as a part of the ERC project on Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies, under the auspices of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Populations, and with the support of the ESRC Centre for Population Change. 

For more information please visit the event website.


Microsimulation is a powerful tool that can be used to make population projections when the number of dimensions becomes large, because statistical models are used to project life-course transitions and events. The microsimulation model developed for the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration is presented, with a focus on the labour force participation modules. Because the microsimulation model includes a large set of dimensions (age, sex, country, education, labour force participation, language, religion, immigrant status, place of birth, duration of stay, age at immigration, education of the mother, etc.), a large range of analytical scenarios that go beyond traditional demographic scenarios are possible. Among others, this microsimulation model is used to analyze how changes in the dynamic of economic integration of immigrants can impact the future labour force in the European Union. 

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Last edited: 12 November 2018


Guillaume Marois

Research Scholar Multidimensional Demographic Modeling Research Group - Population and Just Societies Program

Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM)

Lutz L, Goujon A, Samir KC, Stonawski M, Stilianakis N eds. (2018) Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union


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