This database summarizes the results of a five-year study conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). The starting point is the three alternative cases and one variant of future economic and energy development presented in 1993 in Energy for Tomorrow's World. There, the principal analysis covered the period through 2020 with some extensions to 2100. This study describes three cases of alternative energy futures that diverge into a total of six scenarios, and their implications for 11 world regions. The objective was to examine more thoroughly the period beyond 2020, where the real potential for change lies. To that end the study integrates near-term strategies through 2020 with long-term opportunities to 2050 and beyond; analyzes alternative futures with a unified methodological framework using formal models and databases to ensure consistency and reproducibility; incorporates a dynamic treatment of technological change; harmonizes regional aspirations with global possibilities; and takes account of new developments and new data since Energy for Tomorrow's World appeared in 1993.
The study was conducted in two phases. The first, from 1993 to 1995, developed the six scenarios for 11 world regions and analyzed their implications. The results were presented in the 1995 IIASA-WEC report Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond. The second phase, from 1995 to 1998, was devoted to an extensive review of the study assumptions, results, and implications for the 11 world regions shown in Figure 1. Teams of regional experts and reviewers, totaling over 100 individuals, were convened to provide more thorough regional assessments and alternative perspectives. The final results, incorporating the regional reviews plus an updated, expanded, and more detailed presentation of the six scenarios than in 1995, are presented in a new book entitled Global Energy Perspectives, published this September by Cambridge University Press (order form attached).
