The future trends central to the scenario results emphasize convergence. Although convergence is sometimes slow relative to current aspirations, in all scenarios economic development is substantial, developing regions narrow the gap between themselves and developed regions, all regions shift toward cleaner, more grid-dependent final energy forms, final energy use per capita converges, energy intensities improve, and decarbonization continues. However, as is abundantly clear from both the regional scenario results and reviews, and the poll results in Table 2, there will continue to be substantial differences among the regions. These arise from differences in populations and natural resource endowments and different economic and technological starting points.
Important regional differences exist, for example, in terms of population, GDP, import dependence, and energy use. Average population growth between 2000 and 2050 varies from a still rapid 2% per year in AFR to even a slight decline in PAO. Average medium-term economic growth (1990 to 2020) in the high-growth Case A ranges between 7% per year in CPA and below 2% per year in both PAO, with its mature economy and aging population, and FSU, whose economy continues to suffer from the recession of the 1990s. GDP per capita in PAO is still between 25 times (Case C) and 35 times (Case B) that in SAS in 2050 (down from nearly 70 times higher in 1990). For CPA, one difference between Scenarios A2 and A3 is the difference between being a net energy exporter, in Scenario A2, or net importer, in Scenario A3. MEA and FSU are always net exporters; WEU, PAS, and SAS are always net importers. In NAM the post-2020 primary energy structure varies tremendously across scenarios, reflecting the region's diverse resources. In MEA, all scenarios are dominated by oil and gas. Final energy use per capita in 2050 still varies from about 0.6 toe in SAS and AFR to about 5 toe in NAM in Cases A and B (it is closer to 2 toe in Case C in NAM).
However, despite continuing diversity, the consistent message is that the gaps between rich and poor can be narrowed across a wide range of possible energy supply structures. The speed with which they are narrowed will depend on investments in technological progress and infrastructures to integrate regions and reach the poor.