The second phase of the study focused on regional implications of the global scenarios. It had two parts. First, more than 100 regional experts organized into 11 groups corresponding to the study's 11 world regions developed detailed regional assessments of the scenarios. The key result was that the detailed regional reviews confirmed the overall conclusions from the initial global analysis. Detailed findings of the regional reviews are therefore presented as part of the study's overall conclusions in the next section.
Second, regional experts were polled to identify the relative importance of various energy-related concerns within regions and across regions. The groups were asked to score eight issues central to energy policy debates: population growth, demand for commercial energy services, technology, financing, institutional deficiencies, efficiency and conservation, local environmental concerns, and possible climate change. The issue of local environmental concerns was added to the six issues listed in the 1992 WEC poll, and one of the 1992 categories, energy need and population growth, was split into two. Issues were scored according to the following scale: 1 = very important; 2 = important; 3 = of concern; and 4 = of no concern. The results are shown in Table 2.
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In many respects, Table 2 confirms conventional wisdom. But it also holds some surprises. Considering all 11 regions together, institutional deficiencies and financing are the top concerns. Both issues have moved ahead of efficiency and conservation, the top-ranked issue in the 1992 poll.1 Even North America (NAM), often considered an institutional role model, ranked institutional deficiencies as a number-one priority. For all 11 regions as a group, possible climate change is at the bottom of the list, as it was in 1992. In general, it is of more concern to the OECD regions than to either the developing or reforming regions. In all regions, local environmental concerns are ranked higher than or equal to possible climate change. Western Europe (WEU) lives up to its green image, being the only region to give local environmental concerns a number-one ranking. NAM is unique in scoring technology as a number-one issue.
While population growth is generally of greater concern in developing regions than in reforming or OECD regions, it was also ranked relatively highly by PAO. However, the reason is Japan's concern about too little population growth, exactly the opposite of the developing regions' concerns about too much population growth. PAO's top ranking for efficiency and conservation, and NAM's top ranking for technology reflect the two regions' positions on the cutting edge of these fields. Given the importance of technology, efficiency, and conservation in the scenarios, the continuing high priority given these issues is reassuring.