2010
Ling Liu
Supervisor: Gui-Ying Cao / Wolfgang Lutz
liuling_hb71@163.com
Research Project: Assessing Urban Demography and Economic Growth Impacts on Land Use in the Coastal City Cluster
Abstract: Recent decades, land-use patterns have been greatly affected by the urban expansion along with China's economic growth and internal migration, in particular the coastal region. By selecting Yangtze River Delta, my work focused on analyzing the urban land expansion in coastal city clusters from 1990 to 2005, trying to look at the major questions: 1) to explore how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the urban land use change in Yangtze River Delta City Cluster; 2) to explore the range, speed, and regional differences among various kinds of land-use change; 3) to forecast the further urban land-use at medium term in selection region. In this study, the statistical analysis and land-use dynamics model were used, the data base of study included 4 resources: Land use map; land use planning map; population census, and economic data at regional and national levels.
Biographical Sketch: Ling graduated in July 1996 from the Zhengzhou Surveying and Mapping College, China, with a Master’s degree in Cartography. She is currently a staff at Shandong Audit Office, and also, a third-year Ph.D. student at the Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, China Academy of Sciences. Title of her thesis is “Assessing urban demography and economic growth impacts on land use in the Coastal City Cluster”. Her main fields of scientific research include Spatial-data Mining and Visualization.
Doris Anita Oberdabernig
Supervisor: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
doris.oberdabernig@gmail.com
Research Project: Economic Growth and Education: Do the Effects Differ Across Regime Types?
Abstract: One of the United Nations Millennium Goals is the objective of universal primary education until 2015. A large number of studies has already been conducted about the importance of education for economic growth (see Klasen (2002), Prichett (2001), Barro (2001), Gylfason (2001), Krueger and Lindahl (2001) for examples), sometimes with ambiguous results. As already pointed out by Helliwell (1994), education plays an important role in enabling the choice of a democratic form of government. This study is organized into two parts. In the first part we take a closer look on potentially different effects of education on economic growth, conditional on regime type, demographics and stage of economic development. We estimated region subsamples to find out if there is a systematic difference in the effect of schooling in different parts of the world and tested for robustness. In the second part we tried to investigate how education affects the transition from an autocratic regime to a democratic form of government and analyse how long this kind of transition usually takes.
Biographical Sketch: Doris graduated in November 2008 from the University of Innsbruck, Austria. She holds Master degrees in Political Economy and in International Economics and Business Sciences. In fall 2009 she started a joint Ph.D program of the Universities of Linz and Innsbruck in Economics. Doris is writing her thesis about “Empirical Studies on Economic Development”. Her current research mainly explores issues related to development economics, program evaluation and economic growth, for which she applies econometric methods. Her research plan during the YSSP is to investigate how education and demographics translate into economic growth.
Preeti Preeti
Supervisor: Warren Sanderson / Anne Goujon
pdhillon_maths@yahoo.co.in
Research Project: Forecasting Longevity Improvements in India
Abstract: My summer research focused on the analysis of future longevity increases in India and its major states. Forecasts were made by age, sex, urban/rural residence and state. To fulfill this objective, my proposed study wasl carried by reviewing methods of forecasting old age mortality rates and life expectancy, analyzing past mortality trends with special focus on advance age and applying an appropriate method to project the mortality changes and life expectancy at older ages. Indicators such as mortality risk, remaining life expectancy, life expectancy lost, and the annual rate of mortality improvement were used to study the trends of mortality change. Data from Sample Registration System by Registrar General of India (1971-2007) were used. One major challenge in this proposed research was finding an appropriate method for projecting old age mortality. To overcome this problem, projection methods were applied to past data and the consistency of the results was checked with observed data.
Biographical Sketch: Preeti graduated from M.J.P. Rohilkhand University, Bareilly, India in 2006 with a master degree in Mathematics. She completed M.Phil. in Population Studies in 2007 and currently a second year Ph.D. student of Population Studies at International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India. Title of her thesis is Longevity improvement, employment and support system for graying population in India. Her main fields of scientific interest include mathematical demography, public health and gender issues.
Sergey Timonin
Supervisor: Serguei Scherbov
ser-timonin@yandex.ru
Research Project: Cartographic Analysis and Visualization of Demographic Data, Particularly Multistate Population Projections
Abstract: A rapid growth in interest in the addition of a spatial perspective to population research can be seen in recent years. It is caused by many factors among which are the availability of georeferenced data and the development of geographical information systems (GIS) that supply us with a wide range of tools to gather, organize, analyze and visualize of demographic data within a spatial context. Cartographical visualization allows displaying spatial distribution of the studied characteristics and phenomena. The general objective of my research during the YSSP was application of cartographic methods and means for presenting of likely future size and structure of the population at different spatial levels. This research intended to borrow existing cartographic methods and try to modify them in accordance with the specific of data. Besides traditional approaches, recently developed methods of spatial visualization are of great interest. Among them are cartograms (anamorphoses), animation, 3-D visualization, multimedia, etc. Besides this I produced population projections for Russia and particularly its regions up to 2050.
Biographical Sketch: Sergey graduated from the Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia) in 2009. He holds a master’s degree in Cartography and GIS. He is currently a first-year Ph.D. student at Lomonosov Moscow State University (Laboratory of integrated mapping). The title of his thesis is «Atlas informational system “Demography of Russia”». He also works as a junior research scientist in the Centre of social demography and economic sociology, Russian Academy of Sciences. His research interests involve socio-economic mapping, spatial analysis with application of GIS, population geography and spatial demography.
Alma Celina Vega
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
avega@berkeley.edu
Research Project: A Demographic Overview of Mexican Immigrant Retirement Migration from the U.S.
Abstract: The number of Latino elders in the United States is projected to increase substantially over the next half century. Mexicans comprise a large proportion of these elders. Over half of Latinos 60 years and older in the United States are of Mexican heritage. Of particular importance is where this population decides to retire. A large proportion of Mexican-origin elders in the U.S. are foreign-born and many times, have the option to retire in Mexico or in the United States. This decision can have significant economic consequences in the U.S. given their substantial use of certain public programs, such as Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid. This study attempted to understand the characteristics of Mexican immigrant elders who remain in the U.S. upon reaching old age and those who return migrate. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP), this study examined the migration histories, health outcomes, familial characteristics, living arrangements, and employment status of Mexican immigrants who remain the in the U.S. in old age and those who return migrate.
Biographical Sketch: Alma graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles, School of Public Health in June of 2007. She is currently a second-year doctoral student in the department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley. The title of her dissertation is The Demography of Mexican Retirement Migration from the U.S. Her main fields of interest are U.S.- Mexico migration, retirement behavior, and immigrant health.
2009
Zakarya Al Zalak
Supervisor: K.C. Samir
d_zak2002@yahoo.com
Research Project:Stochastic Population Projections: A suggested methodology and applied study for Syria 2004-2029
Abstract: Population projections, at the national as well as regional levels, are considered one of the main tools for policy makers in planning and decision-making processes. For a good quality population projection, the projection should be based on sound scientific methodology and reliable and quality data. My proposed research had three parts; firstly, to produce a population projection by age and sex for Syria during the period 2004-2029 using a cohort component method with three different scenarios based on future assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration; secondly, to extend the projection by adding the educational component and projecting the population by age, sex and education into the future and; finally, to produce a probabilistic projection for Syria by age and sex.
Biographical Sketch: Zakaraya graduated in 2002 from Damascus University, Faculty of Economy. He holds two Master degrees; one in Operations Research from Damascus University (2005) and the second from the Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University (2006). He is currently a second-year Ph.D. student, the title of his Ph.D. thesis is “Stochastic population projections: a suggested methodology”.
Marta Jankowska
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
mjankows@rohan.sdsu.edu
Research Project: Spatial Population Projections Compared Across Developing and Developed Cities
Abstract: The United Nations projects that by 2030 five billion people will live in cities, and 81% of these people, or around four billion, will be located in the developing world. The intense expansion of third world urban centers is happening without concurrent infrastructure or resource development to support growing populations. As a result, the progressive status of cities as places of lower fertility, accessibility, and better health is being eroded away in developing nations. Yet the significant factors that are influencing population growth – fertility, migration, mortality, and education – do not occur equally throughout the space of a developing world city. Preconceived notions of slums and urban settlement suggest that population growth is highest in the peri-urban fringe, and the most slum like areas of a city. But are these assumptions correct? Understanding the spatiality of population growth in third world cities may have significant implications for planning and development projects, and for future public works. This project proposed to examine the Greater Accra Region in Ghana to understand how population growth is occurring within the city and around the urban fringe. It utilized data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and the Ghana Census to examine past population growth in and around Accra, focusing on the spatial aspects of population change. The project then turned to projecting population by location with methods developed by the World Population Program at IIASA, and mapping the spatial aspects of population growth in Accra.
Biographical Sketch: Marta will graduate from San Diego State University with a master’s in Geography in May of 2009. Her thesis is titled “Neighborhoods of health: using AMOEBA to draw neighborhood boundaries in Accra, Ghana”. She will begin her Ph.D. studies in Geography at the joint San Diego State, University of California Santa Barbara doctoral program in the fall of 2009. Her main research interests are place effects on health, spatial demographics, clustering algorithms, NGO networks, and spatial collaboration.
Elke Loichinger
loichinger@demogr.mpg.de
Supervisor: Bilal Barakat
Research Project: Age-specific Human Capital Projections for the Labor Market
Abstract: The general objective of my research project was to quantify the possible effects of population aging on labor supply and human capital investment. Existing projections for the labor market in Europe focus on the quantity of future labor potential, not taking into account the fact that future cohorts will vary in their educational attainment compared to current workers. For my research project I constructed human capital projections for the labor market by combining age-specific educational attainment projections with projections of labor force participation, for several selected European countries. I calculated two scenarios: one assuming that time-allocation decisions (between education, employment and leisure) are exogenous to the model, and one where they are as assumed to be endogenous, using a dynamic overlapping generations model (OLG).
Biographical Sketch: Elke graduated in 2004 from the University of Regensburg, Germany (major: geography, minors: political science and statistics) and 2007 from Duke University, USA (Master of Public Policy). She is currently a third-year Ph.D student at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. In her thesis, she analyses present and future labor force potential and labor utilization within several selected countries, focusing on age-specific differences. Her main research interests are the challenges and opportunities demographic change poses for the labor market.
2008
Zack Almquist
Supervisor: K.C. Samir/Andrew Noymer
almquist@uci.edu
Research Project: Educational Differential in Demographics
Abstract: Zack plans on using the back projection data set that IIASA in conjunction with VID has produced for 120 countries covering the years 2000-1970*, which contain data on the countries by age, sex, and level of educational attainment in five year increments. The data will then be used to look at the structural effects of different education rates on the demography (fertility, mortality, and migration) of the countries. I also plan to model the effect of education on the population of a number of different countries through simulation based on the stochastic model (multi-state method) used to generate the back projections. The goal of the simulations will be to produce different realistic population changes the World may see in the next several decades to attain various upper and lower bounds for educational attainment in near and distant future for its policy implications. *(Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon, Samir K.C. and Warren Sanderson, Reconstruction of populations by age, sex and level of educational attainment for 120 Countries, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2007, pp. 193-235)
Biographical Sketch: Zack graduated in 2008 from the University of California-Irvine (UCI) with an MA in Demography and Social Analysis, in 2007 from Northwestern University with an MS in Statistics, and in 2005 from the University of Oregon Robert D Clark Honors College with a BS in Mathematics with departmental honors. In the fall he will begin pursuing a Ph.D. in Sociology at UCI.
Monika Sawhney
Supervisor: Vegard Skirbekk
monika.sawhney@gmail.com
Research Project: Predicting Achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with Possible Changes in Education, Fertility and Gender Disparity in Developing Countries
Abstract: Strong relationship between education, health, fertility choices and overall development of the population has been well documented in the recent past. Education has been given due importance in the Millennium Development Goals – where five of the eight goals are related to education. Women’s education has multi-faceted benefits, not only does it impact the well-being of her family, it also empowers her in making important decisions regarding health care and fertility. Many countries in South East Asia have recently experienced substantial economic growth. Subsequent improvement on the health and overall development is not at par with the fast economic development. There also exists strong preference for a “male” child in some of these countries which has a deep impact on the overall development of the population. My proposed research deals with issues related to education, fertility, human capital and health issues of the global population. I propose to conduct in-depth research which weaves together issues that are important for timely achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Using simulations I plan to predict levels of development required for each of the key areas (health, education, fertility, and social development) for regions/countries to be able to meet the MDGs.
Biographical Sketch: Monika completed her master’s in Social Work from Maharaja Sayajirao University – Baroda, Gujarat, India and a second master’s in Human Resources Development from Academy of Human Resources Development – Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Presently she is a doctoral candidate at Tulane University – School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana. Her dissertation is titled “Health Systems Efficiency and gender disparity in child health in India” and is looking at determinants of child health and gender disparity across 25 states in India. Monika’s research interests include working in the area of International Health (issues related to child and maternal health and gender inequality in health status) primarily in developing countries.
Pavlo Shevchuk
pavlo-shevchuk@ukr.net
Supervisor: Serguei Scherbov
Research Project: Projection of Population Educational Level for Ukraine
Abstract: The decline in population numbers and increase in population aging in Ukraine are intensifying the problem of population quality (education and health) and the importance of human capital. Low fertility in recent years has meant a reduction in the size of youngest cohorts which, when these cohorts reach adulthood, will lead to significant changes in the economic and social fabric of the country. Schools are facing the problem of a smaller number of students, and this will, in the very near future, also affect colleges and universities. As a result the higher education enrolment ratio will increase notably. After that, smaller cohorts will enter the labour market. The important questions are: (1) will these cohorts receive much more education than previous cohorts? (2) will they be able to support of the increase in number of retired people? (3) how might rapidly increasing education influence the future fertility of the cohorts born from 1997 to 2005? and therefore (4) will increasing education lead to subsequent decreasing fertility and aging? The situation will also be complicated by competition over human resources with neighbouring more developed countries. This situation is prevalent in the majority of East European countries.
Biographical Sketch: Pavlo graduated in Geography from the Taras Shevchenko Kyiv’s National University, Ukraine in 1997. He is working as a Research Fellow at the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. His main fields of scientific interest include forecasting of population dynamics, distribution of population by education level and probabilistic forecasting of changes in professional skills, influence of environment pollution (especially soil and drinking water) on mortality level and reproductive health
2007
Naomi Aoki, Syracuse, New York
Department of Public Administration, Maxwell School of Syracuse University
Email: naoki@maxwell.syr.edu
Linking global initiatives with local actions in an aging society: The case of Phnom
Penh Province in Cambodia
Abstract:
This study projects the distributions of sub-national demands for public services for the
elderly in seven districts in Phnom Penh province of Cambodia, utilizing multi-state
demographic methods. Demand for public services is measured by the number of
vulnerable elderly who are at risk of poverty if there were no policy interventions.
Preliminary results show the coefficient of variation (the ratio of the standard deviation to
the mean) of the shares of vulnerable elderly across districts is projected to increase by 6
percent from 1998 to 2018 for females, while it decreases by 125 percent for males. This
indicates that variations in the magnitude of demand for services for females will
increase, while it will decrease for males, holding other factors constant. This study uses
scientific analysis to study the effects of possible UN policies advocating a localized
approach to distributing public services to the vulnerable elderly.
Biographical Sketch:
Originally from Japan, Naomi received her M.A. in 2003 from The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International
Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C. She is currently a first-year Ph.D. student at
The Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University (Department
of Public Administration). Her thesis examines the interactions between demographic change, the magnitude of local
demands for public services, and (de)centralization of public services delivery.
Nikola Sander, Brisbane, Australia
School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, The University of Queensland
Email: n.sander@uq.edu.au
The Effects of Age, Period and Cohort on Retirement Migration in Australia.
Abstract:
In Australia internal migration of the retirement-aged population has become an
important phenomenon. Retirement migration not only alters local population age
structures, it also has social and economic effects on both origin and destination regions.
In the presented study three parameters are used to identify age profiles of origindestination
specific migration flows with a retirement peak: 1) the Gross
Migraproduction Rate for the retirement age groups (55-59, 60-64, 65-69 years) to
measure migration intensity, 2) an Index of Peakedness (a relative measure), and 3) an
absolute measure of the area under the peak. In a second step, the migration probabilities
of retirement migration flows are entered in an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Model, which
is used to disentangle the effects of age, period and cohort on migration. The results show
that age and cohort have different effects on retirement migration flows compared to jobrelated
mobility of the working-age population.
Biographical Sketch: Nikola graduated in Geography from the Eberhard Karls Universität
Tübingen, Germany in 2005. She is currently a second year Ph.D. student at the School of Geography, Planning
and Architecture, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
The title of her thesis is “Retirement Migration in Australia, 1976-81 to 1996-01”.
Her main fields of scientific interest include human migration, in particular retirement- and amenity-driven
migration in the context of population ageing and the Baby Boom,
economic geography, spatio-temporal GIS and quantitative methods.
Edward Spang, Medford, Massachusetts
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Email: edward.spang@tufts.edu
Searching for the “Soft Path”: System dynamics for improved water management in Barbados
Abstract: As a water scarce nation, Barbados has suffered numerous water crises in drought years,
forcing the island to import water from neighboring islands, and eventually leading to the
construction of a large desalination plant. However, both of these solutions are expensive,
resource-intensive and supply-based responses. These qualities are in direct conflict with
“Soft Path” water management, as defined by Peter Gleick, where water management
solutions should be more decentralized, efficient and demand-oriented. With tourism
representing a critical sector of the economy, Barbados must manage its water carefully
to meet the needs of the local population as well as the fluctuating number of tourists – a
challenge common to many Small Island Developing States (SIDS). While increased
tourism represents a demand-side pressure on freshwater resources, it may also serve as a
potential solution to the problem. This study uses system dynamics methodology to help
identify potential “soft path” policy opportunities for improved water resource
management in Barbados.
Biographical Sketch:
Edward graduated in 2006 from the Fletcher School (Tufts University, Boston, USA) with a Master of Arts in
Law and Diplomacy, focusing on Development Economics and International Environment and Resource Policy.
He is currently a second year Ph.D. student at the Fletcher School. His main fields of scientific interest include water resource
management, poverty alleviation and the specific vulnerabilities of small island states.
2006
Marcin Stonawski/Poland
Email: stonaw@iiasa.ac.at
Influence of Workforce Ageing on Human
Capital Formation
The research question focused upon as how workforce ageing influences theh
human capital (HC) formation and the future productivity growth. The method
used focuses on the magnitude of HC accumulated in a person. It takes into
consideration education, acquiring knowledge and experience, knowledge becoming
obsolete or forgotten, as well as the impact of health. The estimated productivity
curve (based on the net effect of the various determinants of HC) has the shape
of an inverted U-shaped profile. Consequences of the workforce ageing can be
considered in the short and in the long term. In the short-term the accumulated
HC could increase if welleducated workers from large cohorts reach the age
in which their HC is the highest. However, in the long-term, a decrease in
aggregate HC is expected because the working-age population shrinks. This could
also affect economic growth levels in the future.
Biosketch: Marcin Stonawski/Poland:
Marcin graduated from Cracow University of Economics in 2002 with
a M.Sc in Management. He is currently employed as an assistant
at the Department of Demography at Cracow University of Economics.
His doctoral thesis focused on the issue of human capital and productivity
in the context of population ageing in Poland.
His main fields of scientific interest are:
process of population ageing and its socio-economic consequences,
ageing of labour force and adjustment of companies and institutions
to the future changes on the labour market. At IIASA he will be
working on issues of the influence of workforce ageing on human
capital resources and productivity.
2005
The Young Scientists joined the collaborative
project between IIASA and the Institute of Statistics of UNESCO
whose objectives are reconstructing and projecting the world population
for all countries for the period 1960 - 2030 by age, sex and educational
attainment.
Jean-Christophe
Fotso
Malawi’s Future Human Capital: Is the country on track to meeting the?
IIASA Interim Report IR-06-020 (May 2006).
[Full text]
[Abstract]
African
Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Nairobi, Kenya
Email: jcfotso@aphrc.org
Abstract: This study uses
demographic and multi-state population projections to estimate
the future population structure by age, sex and educational attainment
in Malawi, and importantly, to assess the likelihood of meeting
the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) related to universal primary
education and gender disparity no later than 2015. Data from the
1998 and 1987 censuses, and from the 1992 and 2000 Malawi Demographic
and Health Surveys (DHS) are used. First, we examine school enrolment
ratios, repetition and dropout rates, and educational attainment,
as well as differentials in infant and child mortality by level
of the mother’s education. Second, we estimate fertility,
mortality, and educational transition rates from the DHS. Third,
we estimate the population structure in 2000 and then perform forward
projections to 2015. Finally, we examine the percentage distribution
of the projected population by level of education. Malawi is one
of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with a population
close to 10 million as of 2000. Less than 80 percent of the 6-14
year old children are still in school, and only 15 percent of those
aged 14-17 have completed primary school.
Human
Capital Projection in Vietnam
Ying Ji / China
Email: jiying@pku.edu.cn
Peking University,
China
Abstract: Human capital is
an important factor in economic development. Using multi-state
techniques, population can be projected by education level, providing
information on the human capital stock. In this paper, we use 1989
and 1999 census data for Vietnam and some data from the United
Nations to estimate the fertility rate, mortality rate and schooling
transition rate by sex, age and education. Using the PDE multi-state
population projection model developed by the World Population Program
at IIASA and three scenarios, we forecast the population of Vietnam
by sex, age and education from 2000 to 2050. The education differentials
between male and female are compared. The policy implication of
the results is discussed.
The
Consequences of Educational Expansion and Human Capital Formation
in Uganda:
Reflections on the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development
Frederick Mugisha / Uganda
African Population
and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Nairobi, Kenya
Email: fmugisha@aphrc.org
Abstract: The year 2005 marks
the start of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development
and with this a need to investigate conditions under which the
accumulated human capital through education will contribute to
sustainable development. The human capital stock for Uganda is
projected using multi-state population techniques. The results
suggest that while the majority of the adult population currently
has only up to primary education, in the next thirty-five years,
the majority of the population will have at least secondary education
with those of tertiary education increasing almost 4-fold. The
research work also shows that this expansion in education, much
as it is extremely welcome, will change the education composition
of the labor force, the majority having tertiary education – causing
a shrinking in the agricultural labor force, an industry that currently
contributes 39 percent of GDP. The other industrial sectors will
have to grow at a much faster rate than they are growing currently
to accommodate the growing labor force, or agriculture will have
to be structured to attract the growing educated labor force.
The
Education Projections for Selected European Countries
Pawel Strzelecki / Poland
Institute of Statistics and Demography at the Warsaw
School of Economics (WSE)
Abstract: My presentation
has two parts. The first one is a short introduction to the methodology
of themulti-state demographic projections. It emphasizes its use
in education projections. This issue is very important for understanding
the consequences of the changes in human capital in different countries
in the next decades. The description of the method is illustrated
with examples from my current IIASA project - education projections
for selected European countries. The second part of my presentation
is a brief description of the next steps of my research at IIASA
and on my PhD thesis. At IIASA I will focus on the use of multistate
methods in simultaneous education and labour force projections.
In my PhD thesis I want to learn about the advantages and disadvantages
of using multistate methods versus agent-based approaches in socio-economic
research.
Zewdu
Woubalem
Estimates of Excess Adult Deaths Due to HIV/AIDS in Kenya.
IIASA Interim Report IR-06-013 (March 2006).
[Full text]
[Abstract]
African Population
and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Nairobi, Kenya
Email: zwoubalem@aphrc.org
Abstract: Using data from the 1989 and 1999 population and housing
censuses of Kenya, this paper estimates the total number of intercensal adult
deaths due to HIV/AIDS. It also investigates patterns of adult mortality due
to HIV/AIDS by age, sex and education level. Results show higher mortality
among people with secondary or higher education than those with little or no
education. This pattern is true for both men and women. Higher mortality for
women than men is observed during the study period. This research is the first
to use census data to demonstrate differential mortality due to AIDS by education
level in sub-Saharan Africa.
2004
Sarah
Staveteig
Home email: sarahs@demog.berkeley.edu
PhD Student, UC-Berkeley
Graduate Group in Demography
and Sociology
2232 Piedmont Ave. Berkeley, CA 94720
http://demog.berkeley.edu/~sarahs/
The Peccei Scholarships
2005 went to Sarah Staveteig of the United
States.
IIASA Summer Project:"Relative Cohort Size
and the Risk of Civil War, 1961-2001"
Most theories of population and war follow the Malthusian line of reasoning
that overpopulation inevitably leads to environmental scarcity, thus inducing
conflict. Yet studies of civil war suggest that overpopulation and legal agricultural commodities
are unrelated to contemporary warfare. Conflict over resources has generally stemmed
from maldistribution (structural scarcity) or a desire to control luxury resources,
not from environmental scarcity. Population experts also now suggest that age structure
matters more than population size, with more youthful countries being more prone to
conflict. For the first time, this paper will test the combined influence of age structure
and luxury resources on the outbreak of civil warfare worldwide from 1960 to 2000. Preliminary logistic regression results suggest there are measurable and positive effects
of luxury resources and of a youthful age structure on the probability of civil war onset.
The extent of interaction between the two factors remains to be determined.
Laura
Sokka
Home email:laura.sokka@helsinki.fi
University
of Helsinky, Finland
Forthcoming Interim Report: Water management
under uncertainty in Egypt.
Laura worked
under the supervision of Warren Sanderson on Climate Change and Water
Availability in Egypt.
Laura graduated in Environmental Science and Policy from the University
of Helsinki, Finland on September 2003. She is currently a first year Ph.D.
student
at the Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences of University
of Helsinki. Her Ph.D. thesis will deal with the long-term trends of nutrient
flows in Finland and the impact of different anthropogenic factors on them.
She is presently working as a research scientist at the Finnish Environment
Institute in Helsinki participating in a life cycle assessment of hard
coal
electricity.
Her main research interests include industrial ecology, nutrient flows,
waste management and energy policy issues. At IIASA she will be studying
population-environment
interactions of Egypt under the supervision of Dr. Warren Sanderson.
2003
Cohort
Patterns in Residential Transportation Energy Use: Implications
for Carbon Emissions?
Mausami Desai
Mausami worked under the guidance of Brian O'Neill. She analyzed
historical trends in the residential transportation sector and assessed
the influence of demographic determinants in order to potentially
improve the quality of energy demand projections.
(Supervised by Brian O'Neill)
Simulation
Models of Population Balance
Thomas Fent
Vienna Institute
of Demography
at the Austrian Academy of Science
Prinz-Eugen-Straße 8
A-1040 Vienna, Austria
Email: thomas.fent@oeaw.ac.at
This model provides a unified theoretical treatment of the relationship
between population growth and economic growth taking age structure,
education, and the environment into account. The framework allows
us to analyze consistently the effects of rapid population growth
and rapid aging in a consistent fashion. The model separates the
long-run effects of demographic and educational changes from their
transitional effects. We conclude that sustainable development requires
population balance.
(Supervised by Wolfgang Lutz)
Living
Arrangements of the Elderly in Brazil
Yumiko Kamiya
The 1998 Constitution made pension coverage universal in Brazil.
As a consequence, elderly in both rural and urban areas found a
substantive increase in their non-labor incomes. Using information
from the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD), this study
will examine the impact of the change in pension income in the living
arrangements of the elderly in Brazil.
(Supervised by Warren Sanderson)
2002
Estimating
the Impact of HIV on India's Population
Puja Jawahar
Maryland School
of Public Affairs
Van Munching Hall
University of Maryland
College Park
Puja worked under the guidance of Warren Sanderson on estimating
the spread of AIDS in India. She used the Botswana
HIV/AIDS simulation model (Demographic Model) as a base for
estimating figures for India. The model incorporated possible policy
options and tried to measure the effectiveness of different policies
in limiting the spread of the disease.
Demographics
of Conflict: Mauritius & Fiji
Christian Leuprecht
Queen`s University, Department of Political Studies, Centre for
the Study of Democracy
Mackintosh-Corry Hall
99 University Av.
Kingston, Ontario, Canada
leuprech@qsilver.queensu.ca
http://qsilver.queensu.ca/~leuprech/
During his stay at IIASA, Christian worked under the auspices of
Wolfgang Lutz. His immediate goal was to devise a model that relates
variables of demographic change with sociological variables in order
to forecast the potential for political instability in selected
countries that face ethnic tensions. This model is integral to his
hypotheses about preventative measures of state intervention in
ethnic demographics that are effective and defensible in a liberal-democratic
normative framework.
The
Estimation of Place-to-Place Migration Flows: Europe and China
James Raymer
Department of Geography, University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309-0260
Email: raymer@mail.colorado.edu
Webpage: http://ucsub.colorado.edu/~raymer/
James Raymer worked under supervision of Warren Sanderson and continued
his dissertation research on the estimation of migration flows,
focusing on place-to-place migration between regions of the world.
2001
On
the Changing Relationship Between Fertility and Female Labor Force
Participation Over Space and Time
Henriette Engelhardt
Various authors find that in OECD
countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility
rate and the female labor market participation rate turned from
a negative value before the 1980s to a positive value thereafter.
However, Kögel (2001) finds with fixed effects panel methods
applied on pooled time series that unobserved country-specific heterogeneity
accounts for the changing association between fertility and female
employment. My paper aims to find the factors behind the unobserved
heterogeneity (e.g., relative income, female wages, unemployment
rate of males and females, school enrollment rate of females, purchased
child care, number of females in public sector, number of females
in part time jobs, divorce rate, social expenditure in families
of GDP) and to estimate their relative impact by empirically analyzing
time series of female labor force participation and fertility with
simultaneous multiple panel data methods.
Coming or Going? Understanding Patterns of Net Migration from
Outmigration Rates
Aaron Gullickson
Department of Demography, University
of California, Berkeley,
My Homepage
aarong@demog.berkeley.edu
This presentation explores how much variability in net migration
patterns to a certain area can be created simply by scale adjustments
to outmigration rates. It can be shown that simple adjustments in
the scale and population exposure of sending areas can produce different
"families" of patterns in receiving areas.
The
Accuracy of Past Population Projection - Ex-post Errors for TFR
and Life Expectancy
Robert Serek
Institute of Statistics and
Demography
Warsaw School of Economics
rserek@sgh.waw.pl
I am analyzing ex-post errors
in national and UN population forecasts for South-East Asia (Indonesia,
Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) and Europe
(Austria, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden). I am
looking for the answer concerning possible differences in assumptions
made in national and UN official forecasts since 1970s. I focus
only on total fertility rates and life expectancy at birth.
Fertility in Uttar Pradesh: A District
Level Analysis
Suresh Sharma
The State of Uttar Pradesh in India with its large population size
and its high fertility is getting focused attention towards realization
of the national population policy goals. The district level rapid
household survey under the reproductive and child health program
(RCH) was the first to be carried out over the entire district in
India. The study attempts to highlight the linkage between fertility,
other RCH components, and other socioeconomic and demography profiles
at the district level in UP. We will briefly examine the linkages
through bivariate analysis and thereafter pinpoint the relative
signification of alternative predictors through multiple regression
analyses.
2000
The
Effects of Demographic Changes on Lifestyles, Consumption Patterns
and CO2 Emissions
Eva Alfredsson
Spatial Modelling
Centre (SMC), Kiruna, Sweden
Email: eva.alfredsson@smc.kiruna.se
Population
Dynamics with HIV: Namibia and Botswana
Federico Geremei
Email: federico.geremei@gmail.com
The
Formulation of a Household-Based Development Index and Assessing
the Efficacy Thereof in a Rural Area
Edward Kironji
University of Pretoria, South
Africa
Email: kironji@libarts.up.ac.za
The Prevalence of HIV/AIDS in South Africa : A Re-evaluation
Zethu Matebeni>
University
of Pretoria, Department of Sociology
South Africa
Email: matebeni@libarts.up.ac.za
1999
The
Biases in HIV/AIDS Sentinel Surveillance Data and the Proposed Methods
of Correction with Reference to Namibia
Peter Buwembo
Statistics South Africa
Email: peterb@statssa.pwv.gov.za
Assessing
the Impact of Modernization on Fertility: The Case of Mozambique
IIASA
Interim Report IR-00-025
(report is available in PDF and PS format)
Vania Ceccato
Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
Email: vania@infra.kth.se
Abstract: Mozambique is one of the poorest
countries in the world. It also has one of the world's highest birth
rates. Until recently there has been virtually no way to study Mozambique's
high fertility because of the civil war. This paper uses a very
recent survey of Mozambican women from 1997. The objective of this
paper is to assess the impact of modernization on fertility in Mozambique,
using as a background the "supply-demand theory" presented
by Easterlin and Crimmins (1985). The first part of this paper describes
the indicators of modernization for Mozambique by using maps, and
indicates eventual correlation. The second part deals with the estimation
of equations for demand for children, the supply of children and
the use of contraception. The third part shows how the modernization
variables visualized in the first part of the paper influence all
these equations. The results show that the country has one of the
highest demands for children in the world, but also one of the largest
supplies of children, followed by high infant and child mortality.
In many provinces, the regulation costs are still high. Those who
deliberately use contraceptives already have many children. Among
the modernization variables, education is the factor that most affects
supply, demand and also regulation costs in Mozambique.
1998
Emergy
Evaluation of Water Supply Alternatives for Namibia
In: Fuller, Ben and Isolde Prommer, Eds. 2000. Population-Development-Environment
in Namibia. Background Readings. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA,
IR-00-031, 185-202. (Available in PDF and PS format)
Andres Antonio Buenfil
University of
Florida, My
Homepage
Email: abuenfil@grove.ufl.edu
Abstract: Emergy
is all the energy of one kind previously required to produce something.
By evaluating complex systems using emergy methods, the major inputs
from the human economy and those coming free from nature
can be integrated to analyze social and environmental problems holistically.
Emergy analysis is a tool that can complement traditional cost-benefit
analysis to make more integrated resource management decisions.
In this study, emergy analysis was used to compare alternative ways
of supplying water to Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, to select
the most appropriate option.
The study evaluated the following three out of ten water supply
alternatives: 1) taking water from the Kavango River; 2) desalinating
seawater from the coast, near Walvis Bay; and 3) pumping groundwater
from the Tsumeb aquifer. It was concluded that the best alternative,
among these three options, is to use groundwater from the Tsumeb
aquifer system, but without exceeding maximum sustainable pumping
yields. This alternative consists of pumping no more than 20 million
m3 of groundwater per year from the Tsumeb aquifer and connecting
this water with the Eastern National Water Carrier near Grootfontein.
However, if the Kudu natural gas reserves along Namibias continental
shelf can be used to co-generate electricity and distillate water,
the desalination option might provide the greatest benefit for the
local, national, and regional economy, despite having the highest
capital cost. The worst alternative evaluated was the Kavango River
option, in spite of being the least expensive system proposed. This
alternative may not be sustainable in the long run and have large
negative effects to the environment. Before any new water supply
system is implemented, efforts should be concentrated in reducing
water demand (e.g. by using economic incentives) and increasing
efficiency (e.g. by reducing water losses from leaking pipes and
evaporation).
Botswana
Human Resource Projections
Paul Kibuuka
Development Bank
of Southern Africa
Email: paulk@dbsa.org
Migration
in Botswana
Refilwe Makweya
University of
Pretoria, Republic of South Africa
Email: refilwe@ccnet.up.ac.za
Poverty
and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa
Michael Rathebe Mojaki
University of North West, Republic of South Africa
Email: mrmsoc@uwbo.uniwest.ac.za
HIV/AIDS
and Population Projections Modeling for the PDE-Case
Studies Botswana, Namibia, and Mozambique
Kuberin Packirisamy
Chief Director
Policy,Planning and Research Unit
Department of Economic Affairs-Northern Cape
Republic of South Africa
Tel. (053)839 4011
E-mail: kpackirisamy@met.ncape.gov.za
Responsible for this page: Isolde Prommer
Last updated:
Tuesday, 31-May-2011 10:24:49 CEST
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