Future Human Capital
Population Projections by Level of Education

We present here results from the population projections by level of education for 13 world regions (see Table 1). The approach and results appeared in 2001 in Population and Development Review (Lutz and Goujon 2001). Population projections by level of education are a logical next step to improve population forecasts and to make them more relevant. As discussed in Lutz et al. (1999), adding education to age and sex as an explicitly considered demographic dimension in population forecasting also effects the demographic output parameters themselves because a significant source of so far unobserved heterogeneity is observed and endogenized explicitly. Therefore, it may be considered an improvement even of the purely demographic output parameters of the projection. More importantly, however, the overriding substantive importance of education means that the future educational composition of the population is of interest in its own right.

Table 1. IIASA's 13 world regions.

Click here to retrieve the definition of the 13 IIASA world regions.

In this study we apply the genuine demographic methodology of multi-state population projection to the task. This method is based on a multi-dimensional expansion of the life table (increment-decrement tables) and of the cohort-component projection method. Figure 1 shows the specific structure of the multi-state model chosen for this study. It subdivides the population into four distinct groups according to educational attainment. Each subpopulation is further stratified by age (five-year age groups) and sex, and can be represented through a separate population pyramid. The key parameters of the model are three sets of age- and sex-specific educational transition rates, i.e., the age-specific intensities for young men or women to move, e.g., from the category of primary educational attainment to that of secondary attainment. Another important feature that gives this model a dynamic element is the fact that it considers different fertility rates for different educational groups. Migration and mortality are only considered by age and sex in this application.

Figure 1: Structure of the multi-state population projection model by level of education.

(Click on the picture to obtain a bigger size)

The educational projections presented here are based on the basic assumptions of the demographic projections developed by Lutz et al. (2001). The fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions follow the median paths of their uncertainty distributions. In addition, three alternative educational scenarios are defined on the basis of different sets of transition rates between educational groups.

We consider four educational categories:

1.	No education: Applies to those who have completed less than one year of formal schooling.
2.	Primary education: Includes all those who have completed at least one year of education at the first level (primary), but who did not go on to second-level studies.
3.	Secondary education: Consists of those who moved to the second level of education, whether or not they completed the full course, but who did not proceed to studies at the tertiary level.
4.	Tertiary education: Anyone who undertook third-level studies, whether or not they completed the full course.

For a more detailed description about estimating the starting year parameters and the assumptions, please refer to Lutz and Goujon (2001) and Goujon and Lutz (forthcoming).

The descriptions of the three different scenarios are presented here:

	The 'constant transition rates' (short 'constant') scenario assumes that no improvements are made over time in the proportion of a young cohort that acquires different levels of education, while fertility, mortality, and migration trends follow the median demographic assumptions, as discussed above.
	The 'convergence to North American transition rates by 2030' (short 'American') scenario assumes that all regions experience linear improvements in their enrolment that by 2025-2030 will bring them to the school enrolment levels of North America today. All children will receive at least some primary education and up to 98 percent will receive some secondary education. The participation in tertiary education will increase to 55 percent. The 'American' scenario also implies a closing of the gender gap at all levels of the educational scheme by 2030.
	The 'ICPD' scenario reflects the quantitative goals concerning education that were agreed at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994. These explicit goals are mainly related to the spread of education in developing countries and refer especially to girls. Specifically, the Cairo Program of Action calls for:
		Elimination of the gender gap in primary and secondary school education by 2005 (operationalized as female enrolment reaching male levels by 2005-2010).
		All girls and boys shall have complete access to primary education by 2015 (operationalized as linear interpolation to period 2015-2020).
		The net primary school enrolment ratio for children of both sexes should be at least 90 percent by 2010 (operationalized by 2010-2015).

Countries that have achieved the goal of universal primary education are urged to extend education and training at secondary and higher levels. This less precise goal was operationalized as follows. In developing countries the transition rate from primary to secondary reaches 75 percent by 2025-2030 for both sexes. Transition to tertiary education increases by 5 percentage points until 2025-2030, except for North America, where it is already above 50 percent.

Two spreadsheet files of the projection results and assumptions can be accessed here:

1.	Assumptions file (Excel format or Comma delimited format) by region, scenario, year, and education category for the following demographic indicators:
		Age-specific fertility rates (ASFR)
		Age- and sex-specific mortality rates (ASMR)
		Age- and sex-specific net number of migrants (ASMig) (in thousands)
		Age- and sex-specific transition rates (ASTR) (in %)
		Age- and sex-specific population in starting year 2000 (POP) (in thousands)
2.	Results file (Excel format or Comma delimited format) of the age-specific population for the three above-mentioned alternative scenarios by region and for the world. Numbers are presented in thousands.
3.	Results of the human capital projections by the ICDP scenario of the 13 IIASA world regions, presented as population pyramids.

Note: To download the files, click on the right mouse button and either "Save link as...", or "Save target as...", depending on the browser you use.

Correspondence and requests should be addressed to Anne Goujon (goujon@iiasa.ac.at).

REFERENCES

Lutz, Wolfgang, Anne Goujon, and Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter. 1999. Demographic dimensions in forecasting: Adding education to age and sex. Pages 42-58 in Frontiers of Population Forecasting (W. Lutz, J.W. Vaupel, and D.A. Ahlburg, eds.). A Supplement to Vol. 24, 1998, Population and Development Review. New York: The Population Council.

Lutz, Wolfgang and Anne Goujon. 2001. The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment. Population and Development Review 27(2): 323-339.

Reprinted as RR-01-011 by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
To order the reprint and to view the abstract of this PDR article click here...

Lutz, Wolfgang, Warren Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov. 2001. The end of world population growth. Nature 412: 543-545.

Reprinted as RR-01-12 by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. To order the reprint and to view the abstract of this Nature article click here...

Goujon, Anne and Wolfgang Lutz. 2004. Future human capital: Population projections by level of education. Pages 121-157 in Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov (Eds.), The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development. London: Earthscan.

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Last updated: 30 Jan 2007