Afrikas Demografische
Herausforderung
Vorwort - Wenn Wachstum Entwicklung Verhindert Wolfang Lutz, Reiner Klingholz , R. Bähr
Edited by Lilli Sippel, Tanja Kiziak, Franziska Woellert, Reiner Klingholz © Berlin Institute 2011. Zur Studie
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Entwicklungspolitisch bestehen heute in Subsahara Afrika die meisten und größten Probleme. Von den weltweit 48 am wenigsten entwickelten Ländern befinden sich 33 in diesem Teil Afrikas. Gleichzeitig zeichnet sich die Region durch die weltweit höchsten Geburtenraten aus. Bis zum Jahr 2050 dürfte sich die Zahl der Menschen in Subsahara-Afrika
verdoppeln, bis Ende des Jahrhunderts könnte sie sich vervierfachen.
Das Bevölkerungswachstum könnte sogar noch stärker ausfallen, etwa wenn Verhütung in Subsahara-Afrika keine deutlich stärkere Verbreitung findet als dies derzeit der Fall ist.

Bei der Nutzung von modernen Mitteln zur Familienplanung hinkt vor allem Westafrika weit hinterher.

The New Generations of Europeans

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From the series "Population and Sustainable Development," providing fresh ways of thinking about population trends and impacts.

Europe today is characterized by changing family patterns, dropping fertility rates and mass migration. With the potentially massive ramifications this has for pensions, health, housing, transport, family relations, employment and other sectors of society, The New Generations of Europeans sets out to assess what it is to be a citizen of a growing EU and what important demographic, social, and economic issues will have to be faced by European decision makers. Edited by leading demographers and sociologists, and made up of contributions from respected researchers in the fields of population and society from different parts of Europe, it presents the results of five years of research by the European Observatory on the Social Situation, Demography and the Family.

With the aid of over 100 graphs and tables and a full discussion, this book asks how numerous, fertile and long-lived the new generations of European citizens will be. The state of families, immigration and health are all examined, especially in the context of the challenges that will be faced in maintaining social cohesion. Crucially, the question of how demographic changes will impact Europe’s socioeconomic infrastructure is woven throughout.

Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov, (Eds.). 2004. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development.
London: Earthscan in association with IIASA.

For the table of contents click here
For quotations click here (PDF)

This book provides new ways of thinking about population in the 21st century. While the 20th century was the century of population growth - with the world's population increasing from 1.6 to 6.1 billion - the book shows that the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. At the moment, we are at the crossroads of these two different demographic regimes, with some countries still experiencing high population growth and others facing rapid aging. The new demography of the 21st century produces a new set of challenges for forecasting and understanding the consequences of population changes.

The volume addresses these challenges in a number of ways. It produces probabilistic population forecasts for the world and 13 major regions and introduces new ways of analyzing the uncertainty of these forecasts. It integrates human capital and sustainable development with population change and shows how combining the three provides a new way of unifying our understanding of demographic developments in the 21st century.

The book contains chapters on probabilistic population forecasting; integrated forecasts of population and education changes in world regions; the use of literate life expectancy as an indicator of social development; the interactions between population, the environment, and agriculture in Ethiopia; the effects of education on trends in HIV prevalence in Botswana; China’s future rural and urban population by education; population, greenhouse gases, and climate change; and a new conceptual framework that combines considerations of population growth, age structure, human capital, and the environment and shows that the problems of rapid economic growth and rapid aging can be formulated and analyzed within a unified framework. We call this approach to thinking about 21st century demographic issues “population balance.”

Wolfgang Lutz, Alexia Prskawetz, and Warren C. Sanderson (Eds.). 2002. Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis. A supplement to Vol. 28, 2002 of Population and Development Review.

How does the human population affect the natural environment and vice versa? Increasing research in this field calls for more appropriate analytical methods. In this first systematic treatment, the contributors — demographers, other social scientists, and environmental scientists — describe and critically examine key concepts and analytical approaches, both in theoretical terms and through examples and case studies.

Summary, Table of Contents, and ordering information

Brian C. O'Neill, F. Landis MacKellar and Wolfgang Lutz. 2000. Population and Climate Change.
©International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 2001 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK ISBN 0-521-66242-7

Praise for Population and Climate Change

"A balanced, accessible, and highly informative review and analysis of one of the most critical environmental issues we face in the 21st century. Indispensable reading for researchers and policymakers with an interest in population and environment relationships."
John Bongaarts

"... a well argued and comprehensive treatment of the role of population in the climate change debate that belongs on the shelf of everyone who is seriously intrested in climate policy."
Steve Schneider

"This is the first systematic, quantitative work to be done on population, climate, and the environment. It is expert, thorough, and, what is most pertinent, believable. It will prove to be the starting point for anyone who wishes to understand and work on this most important of problem areas."
Partha Dasgupta

Summary, Table of Contents, and click here to order the book at IIASA

Wolfgang Lutz, Leonel Prieto, and Warren Sanderson (Eds). 2000.
Population, Development, and Environment on the Yucatán Peninsula: From Ancient Maya to 2030.
Laxenburg, Asutria: IIASA Research Report RR-00-14, July 2000, 257 pp.

The Research Report contributes to understanding the complex interactions between population and the environment.

This volume is the third in a series of case studies of population, development, and environment interactions. In the style of the others, it is divided into two parts.

• The first part is a set of studies of the history, culture, environment, and economy of the Yucatan peninsula. The chapters focus on issues ranging from the causes of the Mayan collapse in the 10th century to the performance of the Yucatan economy from 1970 to 1993.
  The second part builds on the first through the construction of a set of computer simulation models of population, development, and environment interactions.
• Taken together, the models deal with population growth by education, migration between the Yucatan and other parts of Mexico and within the peninsula itself, tourism, the quality of beaches, the congestion of historical sites, the fisheries of the Yucatan coast, and land use.

Download or read the report in PDF format. To order a hard copy from IIASA, click here.

Fuller, Ben, and Isolde Prommer (Eds.). 2000.
Population-Development-Environment in Namibia: Background Readings.
Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA Interim Report IR-00-031, May 2000, 315 pp.

Includes fifteen in-depth case studies on Namibia.

This report was part of an IIASA project on Evaluating Alternative Paths for Sustainable Development in Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia, which developed an interdisciplinary computer model and evaluated alternative policy scenarios for the country. The project was funded by the European Commission through the Directorate General for Development.

The table of contents including abstracts can be viewed at www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/pub/namibia.html/

This report can be downloaded in PDF format, and hard copies are available from IIASA, priced at a handling charge of US$ 20. To order the report from IIASA, click here.

The CD-ROM that includes this publication in addition to the simulation models can be viewed at the Population Project website, and click here for order information.

Lutz, Wolfgang (Ed.). 1996.
The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today?
Revised and Updated Edition.
London: Earthscan, 500 pp.

This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updated starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first ever fully probabilistic world population projections. The projections, given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence levels for global populations. Combining methodological innovation with overviews of the most recent data and literature, this updated edition of The Future Population of the World is sure to confirm its reputation as the most comprehensive and essential publication in the field.

Prinz, Christopher. 1995.
Cohabiting, Married, or Single: Portraying, Analyzing and Modeling New Living Arrangements in the Changing Societies of Europe.
Aldershot: Avebury, 204 pp.

Demographers have been slow to reassess the value of the traditional concept of marital status. Until the beginning of the 1960s, a person's living arrangement could be predicted reasonably well by looking at the individual's legal marital status. During the 1980s, the situation altered dramatically. We know that unmarried couples have always existed; however, in the past they were so rare that little importance was attached to this living arrangement. It was also difficult to study the phenomenon because cohabitation was not yet a generally accepted lifestyle. That is no longer the case. Today, in many European countries many couples live together before marriage, and a significant portion of the adult population chooses cohabitation instead of marriage. It is therefore no longer possible not to consider consensual unions when studying marital-status or living arrangement structures. The book provides an authoritative and up-to-date review and interpretation of the development of the cohabitation phenomenon across Europe.

Gonnot, Jean-Pierre, Nico Keilman and Christopher Prinz. 1995.
Social Security, Household, and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies.
Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, [ISBN 0-7923-3395-0], 234 pp.

Lutz, Wolfgang (Ed.). 1994.
Population-Development-Environment: Understanding Their Interactions in Mauritius.
Berlin/Heidelberg/New York: Springer-Verlag, [ISBN 3-540-58301-7], 400 pp.

The development in the island state of Mauritius over the past 30 years can serve as an example of how adverse conditions can be overcome. In the early 1960s Mauritius was trying to cope with rapid population growth, extreme poverty, and grim economic prospects. In 1990 the situation was radically different. Although population density had increased, total fertility had dropped dramatically and the GNP per capita had risen to $2310. Economic stagnation had been replaced by steady growth and full employment, and environmental problems were being addressed as issues of high priority. These developments attracted IIASA's attention. With the assistance of the UN Population Fund and the cooperation of the Government of Mauritius, IIASA and the University of Mauritius set out to develop a computer-based model to demonstrate the interaction among population dynamics, socioeconomic development, and environmental factors. This book provides a detailed report of their findings.

Lutz, Wolfgang, Sergei Scherbov and A. Volkov (Eds.). 1994.
Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991.
London, UK: Routledge, ISBN 0-415-10194-8], 496 pp.

The former Soviet Union entered the 20th century as a conglomerate of lifestyles, religions, and cultures. During the course of the century, socioeconomic development started at different times and proceeded differently in different regions and in various socioeconomic groups. Today the western and northern parts of the former Soviet Union have the demographic characteristics of a developed country while the Central Asian republics share the demographic patterns of developing countries. The book provides an overview of demographic trends and patterns in the republics of the Soviet Union. Presenting data evaluated by leading Soviet and Western demographers, much of it recently available, the book forms the first international compendium of demographic research on the former USSR. With the exception of migration (on which there is insufficient data) the book provides a comprehensive and detailed review of Soviet demographic change - fertility, marriage and the family, mortality, and age structure - through the 20th century.

Fassmann, H. and R. Münz. 1994.
European Migration in the Late Twentieth Century: Historical Patterns, Actual Trends and Social Implications.
Aldershot, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, [ISBN 1 85898 125 5], 287 pp.

Migration in Europe is a pressing social and political issue for the policy makers of the 1990s. Drawing upon a wide body of language, expertise and analysis, the book combines an important survey with a series of detailed country studies on migration in Europe. The authoritative overview essay by the editors examines migration to and within Europe. They compare the flow during the last forty years with the present situation, detailing both the magnitude and geography of migration over this period. This is followed by thirteen individual country studies each of which features a historical introduction to emigration and immigration in the featured country, quantitative data sets and a detailed assessment of the social and political implications. These studies- specially prepared by leading scholars- cover the United Kingdom, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, Israel, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, the former Yugoslavia, and the former USSR. This comprehensive and scholarly book will be welcomed by teachers and researchers of social sciences and history for presenting new insights into one of the key political, social and economic issues facing modern Europe.

Lutz, Wolfgang. 1991
Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America. What Can We Assume Today?
London, UK: Academic Press, [ISBN 0-124-60445-5], 585 pp.

This book provides a state-of-the-art report on what demographers and scientists in related disciplines assume today about the future of human reproduction, longevity, and migration. Alternative views are translated into several scenarios on possible future population structures in Europe and North America.

Lutz, Wolfgang. 1989.
Distributional Aspects of Human Fertility. A Global Comparative Study.
London; Academic Press, [ISBN 0-12-460470-6], 282 pp.

This is the first comprehensive study of global fertility distributions using a unifying methodology, taking data from the World Fertility Surveys of developed and less-developed countries. The study focuses on parity-specific fertility analysis, which is becoming increasingly important as family planning measures are seen to affect fertility trends.