Dynamic Population- Development- Environment (PDE) Interactions Project

a) Research Plan 2006-2010

POP will continue the tradition of specific comprehensive PDE case studies that began with a study on Mauritius (Lutz, 1994). Key methodological issues of this series of studies have recently been discussed in a special issue of the journal Population and Development Review (Lutz et al., 2002a). Although each study has had (and any future study is likely to have) different structures and research questions, they all have key features in common. In particular, they use the methods of systems analysis to try to capture the complex PDE interactions over time. As illustrated by the work of the recent US National Academy of Sciences Committee on Population and Environment, most current work in the field of population and environment is at a very descriptive level or only focuses on very specific and partial population-environment relationships. However, possible dangers to human health and well-being resulting from future PDE interactions can most effectively be anticipated through comprehensive models that try to capture these interactions in the best possible form. IIASA, as an institute with a long-term commitment to systems analysis, seems to be the right place for keeping the tradition of real world applications of such comprehensive systems models, thus filling an important niche in the scientific community.

The recent Asian tsunami disaster of December 26, 2004, has reminded the world in a dramatic way of the vulnerability of population-environment interactions in coastal areas. Coastal development in Asia (as in many other parts of the world) over the past decades has been largely uncontrolled and guided by short-term economic incentives. This has led to massive 139 migration movements to the coasts, often associated with social disruption and a significant destruction of ecosystems (some of which, such as coral reefs and mangrove forests, have proven to have important protective functions). These factors, combined with the rapidly increasing mobility (of both locals and international visitors), have also made these populations more vulnerable to infectious diseases (AIDS, SARS, malaria and others) which may, in turn, have serious consequences for the longer term economic development. In the future these coastal populations are also expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. IIASA and Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok have recently signed an agreement to carry out a joint research program on population-environment interactions in coastal areas. This is based on the already existing close collaboration between POP and Chulalongkorn’s College of Population Studies (CPS) in the context of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis. International funding for this program is being sought as part of the reconstruction efforts for the most heavily affected regions in order to help plan sustainable coastal development in these regions. The following PDE case studies are foreseen for the coming five years.

The Phang Nga, Phuket and Krabi regions. These are the three provinces in Thailand most severely affected by the tsunami. Tourism plays an important economic role in this region and has been a reason for both environmental destruction and preservation (e.g., the establishment of national parks to attract tourists). Thus this study will have a particular focus on sustainable tourism. It will be carried out in collaboration with Chulalongkorn University and local partners.

The Nicobar Islands. This group of islands belonging to India is situated in the Andaman Sea and was very severely hit by the December 26 tsunami. Unlike the coast of Thailand, these islands have been largely untouched by tourism and modern development in general. A large proportion of the population consists of ethnic tribes living traditional lives; access to the islands is restricted by the Indian government. An interesting historical link to Laxenburg castle is that the Nicobar Islands were an Austrian colony for a few years in the 18th century. Empress Maria Theresa established an “Austrian East India Company” for this purpose, although this turned out to be very short lived. The leading international expert on the Nicobar Islands, Indian scholar Simron Singh, lives in Vienna and will most likely play a key role in this PDE study.

Aceh province in Indonesia. Aceh had by far the largest number of tsunami victims. At this stage it is still difficult to assess the exact number of victims, but it is already clear that this disaster has significantly affected the size and structure of the population of Aceh. Based on pretsunami census data and surveys likely to be taken soon, the Program will try to assess quantitatively the population dynamics, human capital prospects and sustainable development options for Aceh. A close collaboration for this work has already been established with Indonesian colleagues under the umbrella of the Asian MetaCentre.

Sri Lanka. Although the Program is very keen to pursue the research, at this point plans are still vague, and the necessary scientific contacts with relevant institutions in Sri Lanka have not yet been established.

As a key step in defining the research program for this new round of PDE case studies, a planning meeting was held in Phuket (May 11–13, 2005) to bring together some of the world’s leading experts on population-environment interactions in coastal areas. 

b) Previous PDE Projects

• Egypt: Population, Human Capital and Water in Egypt. (Project period 2004-2006)
  
• Botswana's Future, Mozambique's Future, Namibia's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges in the Era of HIV/AIDS. (Project period 1997-2000)
  
  Read also about the PDE concept as published online for the Africa PDE project in 2001.
  
• Yucatan: Population, Development and Environment on the Yucatán Peninsula: From Ancient Maya to 2030 (Project period 1996)
  
• Cape Verde: A Systems Study of Population, Development, and Environment. (Project period 1994-1995)
  
• Mauritius: Population-Development-Environment: Understanding Their Interactions in Mauritius. (Project period 1993-1995)

Responsible for this page:Suchitra Subramanian
Last updated: 05 Sep 2011