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News & Highlights of 2008 Election to the Austrian Academy of Sciences In 2008 Wolfgang Lutz was elected as a corresponding member (kMI) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. News & Highlights of 2007 MicMac Meeting on Assumptions on Future Mortality and Morbidity Trends in Europe The World Population Program welcomes Victor Garcia Guerrero. Victor received a BSc. degree in actuary and an M.Eng. degree in operations research, both from the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). He has a diploma in advanced econometrics from the Faculty of Economics at UNAM and has also taught econometrics at the Faculty of Sciences.
He is currently working on his PhD in population studies at El Colegio de Mexico A.C. His dissertation is about population projections and policies in Mexico, undertaking a critical review of the official population projections and developing an alternative probabilistic methodology. Welcome Young Scientists: Fifty-one post-graduate students from 20 countries have arrived at IIASA for our annual Young Scientists Summer Program. In the next three months, senior scientists will guide the young scholars as they pursue their chosen research topics. The program offers a unique opportunity for them to enhance their research skills and become part of a worldwide network of interdisciplinary and cross-cultural specialists. The World Population Program welcomes [more details about the YSSPers] Population Association of America (PAA) P-3F METHODS AND APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY 102 NEW PERSPECTIVES ON LOW FERTILITY P-7H GENDER, RACE/ETHNICITY, RELIGION (Posted April 2007) The World Population Program welcomes Emma Terämä. Emma Terämä received her Doctor of Science degree in technology from the Helsinki University of Technology in 2007. She concentrated on atomistic modeling and supercomputing of biological systems such as cell membranes. She was an Erasmus-scholar at the Freie Universität in Berlin during her master's studies, and a Research Scholar at the University of California at Davis in between her PhD studies. Dr. Terämä's interest in sustainable development projects
arouse during 11 years of UNICEF-work and chairing the Helsinki volunteer
group. She is using the modeling experience gathered during her physicist
years and applying it to demography. The issues that interest her the
most pertain to AIDS and other globally important health topics, education,
and local human-environment interactions. IIASA’s World Population Program and the Cairo Demographic Center have finished a study on projecting future population and human capital growth at the level of governorates in Egypt. Their findings were presented March 7th at a symposium at the Egyptian Academy of Scientific Research and Technology. Executive summary (PDF): High resolution -- Low resolution (fax print quality) Project Report (PDF): Anne Goujon, Huda Alkitkat,
Wolfgang Lutz, and Isolde Prommer. Population
and Human Capital Growth in Egypt: (Posted March 2007) February 2007: Sergei Scherbov gave an interview in the central and most influential Belorussian newspaper Belarus Today. During his last trip to Minsk, Sergei gave a presentation to parlament members and represenantives of executive power describing the future of their population. There were plenty of interviews, TV and radio programs devoted to this event. This interview, with reference to IIASA, is a central one : sb.by/print.php?articleID=56829 (Posted Feb 2007) Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang
Lutz Slides [PPT] Listen [MP3 1:01:06] Seminar Summary In collaboration with the Vienna Institute of Demography, IIASA's World Population Program has developed a new dataset of educational attainment by age and sex for 120 countries for the period 1970–2000. The consistency of this new data is superior to existing historical datasets which have many gaps in time and changes in definition. Further, the new dataset also adjusts past enrollment rates as they are influenced by the different mortality rates that vary with people's level of education. By exploiting the demographic dimension of the education data, the researchers show human capital is better able to explain differences in income per capita across countries. In addition, when using the new data, aggregate changes in educational attainment are a robust determinant of economic growth. This unique data collection also provides a deeper insight into the importance of the age structure of human capital in technology adoption. More about the speaker at IIASA's Publications Department website (Posted Jan 2007) The World Population Program welcomes Tapas
MISHRA: Before joining the
IIASA's Postdoctoral
Program, Tapas Mishra completed his
doctoral
research
in economics
specializing
in macroeconomics,
demography and non-stationary econometrics from Catholic
University of Louvain, Belgium. Mr. Mishra's research focuses on
studying consequences of stochastic demographic system on economic growth
and development by
exploiting their
non-stationary temporal and spatial features. Over the past years he
has specialized in the empirics of economic growth and has also worked
on demographic and demography-based income projections, and the study
of variations of cross-country economic growth by introducing stochastic
environment, demography and economic growth system. He has had several
years of experience in working for international and national economy
policy making bodies. Check his CV for a detailed list of publications and areas of research.
The New Generations of Europeans About
the Editors Europe today is characterized by aging populations, changing family patterns, dropping fertility rates and mass migration. With the potentially massive ramifications this has for pensions, health, housing, transport, family relations, employment and other sectors of society, The New Generations of Europeans sets out to assess what it is to be a citizen of a growing EU and what important demographic, social, and economic issues will have to be faced by European decision makers. Edited by leading demographers and sociologists, and made up of contributions from respected researchers in the fields of population and society from different parts of Europe, it presents the results of five years of research by the European Observatory on the Social Situation, Demography and the Family. With the aid of over 100 graphs and tables and a full discussion, this book
asks how numerous, fertile and long-lived the new generations of European citizens
will be. The state of families, immigration and health are all examined, especially
in the context of the challenges that will be faced in maintaining social cohesion.
Crucially, the question of how demographic changes will impact Europe’s
socioeconomic infrastructure is woven throughout. Despite
the current problems with European integration,
younger Europeans tend to have a European identity in addition to their national
one. So concluded IIASA demographers Wolfgang
Lutz (also of the Austrian Academy
of Sciences) and Vegard
Skirbekk together with Sylvia
Kritzinger of the Institute of Advanced
Studies after studying Eurobarometer data. See POPNET for
a reprint from Science. EUROPE is the theme of the new POPNET newsletter The
Forces Driving Unprecedented Population Ageing Download POPNET No.
38, Autumn 2006 (PDF) The
World Population Program welcomes Jesus
Crespo Cuaresma. Jesus will work on a new project on Human Capital and
Economic Growth. 7. September 2006 IIASA at the European Population Conference 2006 The "European Population Conference 2006" was organized by the "European Association for Population Studies". This international conference took place this year in Liverpool from the 21th until the 24th June and was entitled: "Population Challenges in Ageing Societies ". Scientists of IIASA's World Population Program presented the following papers: Session 16: Bridging the micro-macro
gap in forecasting. Where do assumptions come from?: Investigating the substantive
basis for population projections in Europe. Session 57: Managing regular and irregular migration. Chair: Wolfgang Lutz, IIASA & VID Session 66: New Times, Old Beliefs: Predicting the Future of Religions in Austria (2001-2051). Anne Goujon, VID & IIASA; Vegard Skirbekk, IIASA; Katrin Fliegenschnee, VID; Pawel Strzelecki, Warsaw School of Economics Session 73: A New Effort to Reconstruct
the Population by Age, Sex and Level of Education for all Countries since
1970.
Samir KC, IIASA; Anne
Goujon, VID & IIASA; Wolfgang Lutz, IIASA & VID A
comprehensive demographic data sheet (poster) for 46
European countries shows newly computed fertility indicators and projections.
It is the work of IIASA's World Population
Program in collaboration with the Vienna
Institute of Demography of the Austrian
Academy of Sciences and the Population
Reference Bureau. Welcome
Young Scientists Apply
Now for IIASA's Postdoctoral Program Tomorrow's
People: the Challenges of Technologies for Life Extension and Enhancement Asia: Critical Issues for a Sustainable Future IIASA’s World Population Program is co-organizing an International
Conference on Population and Development in Asia, planned
for 20-22 March in Phuket, Thailand. The event will mark the end of the
first six-year program of the Asian
MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis, which
is being funded as a Regional Centre of Excellence by the Wellcome
Trust. The
World Population welcomes Joze Sambt.
Europe Faces Demographic
Challenges The
World Population welcomes Sarah
Staveteig (University of California at Berkeley, USA) Sarah was chosen for her work on the issue of "Relative Cohort Size
and the Risk of Civil War, 1961-2001". Oct 2005: Asia is the theme of the new POPNET newsletter (pdf) from IIASA's World Population Program
Sept 2005: The World Population Program welcomes Mr. Joshua R. Goldstein Joshua R. Goldstein is associate professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University and a faculty associate of Princeton's Office of Population Research. He is on leave at IIASA for one year. He holds a Ph.D. in Demography from the University of California at Berkeley (1996). He has worked in family demography, the demography and mixing of ethnic groups, aging, and mathematical demography. His current project, the Changing Ages of Man, is a comparative, historical project on longevity and the human life course. July 2005: A ministerial-level conference in Brussels July 11–12 addressed demographic challenges facing the European Union. This was the first meeting at this level to explicitly deal with the issues of how policy could influence demographic trends. The conference rapporteur was Wolfgang Lutz, leader of IIASA's World Population Program. July
2005: In the issue 345 of Nature,
researchers Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov of IIASA's World
Population Program suggest a new perspective on population ageing and the
sustainability of pension systems in countries like the US, Germany and Japan.
As remaining life expectancy increases, people remain relatively young for
longer. A gradual increase in retirement age, they suggest, might be fairer
and more sustainable than current pension systems, which favors older generations. Press
release (pdf). More. IIASA Reprint RP-05-006: June 2005: The World Population Program warmly welcomes five participants of IIASA's Young Scientist Summer Program 2005: Mr. Jean-Christophe Fotso, Mr. Frederick Mugisha, and Mr. Zewdu Woubalem from the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC) in Nairobi, Kenya; Ms. Ying Ji from the Institute of Population Research at the Peking University, China; and Mr. Pawel Strzelecki from the Institute of Statistics and Demography at the Warsaw School of Economics, Poland. Click here to read their Biographical Sketches May
2005: A scientific seminar was held in Phuket 9-11 May 2005, to define the joint research program of population-environment interactions in the coastal regions of Asia after the tsunami of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis and IIASA (see earlier posting). May 2005: The World Population Program welcomes Mr. Samir K.C. Mr. K.C. is currently in the PhD program at the University of Groningen, the Netherlands, where he is mainly developing a multi-disease multi-state population model for lung diseases for the economic evaluation of the pilot implementation of the "Practical Approach to Lung Health" initiative of the WHO in Nepal. April 2005: The UNESCO Institute of Statistics recently abandoned its old methodology for literacy projections and adopted instead the multi-state population projection approach developed at IIASA. Wolfgang Lutz and Anne Goujon of IIASA's World Population Program use the approach when forecasting population by age, sex and level of education for all countries of the world. April 2005: Press Clipping: New
light on Egypt's future by John Rowley (People & the Planet). March 2005: The World Population Program welcomes Moema Figoli. Dr. Figoli is a demographer and teaches at the University Federal de Minas Gerais in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, where she received her Ph.D. in demography in 1997. From September 1994 to September 1995, she worked on methodological issues related to her thesis at the University of Chicago, USA. She also participated in the summer program at Michigan University in 2002. She has been working mainly on population forecasting and social security issues. March 2005: The recipient of this year's Luis Donaldo Colosio Fellowship was announced and the winner is Fernando Riosmena, a Ph.D. candidate in Demography from the University of Pennsylvania. He holds a Masters degree in Demography from the same University, and a B.A. in Marketing from the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) in Guadalajara, Mexico. Fernando Riosmena's main research interests intersect the fields of international migration, formal and social demography, research methodology, and Latin American studies. His doctoral dissertation, "Within, Between, and Beyond: Three Essays on Latin America–US Migration Dynamics," attempts to describe and explain migratory dynamics for Latin American migrants in the United States looking at He will join the World Population Program for one year beginning September 1st, 2005. March
2005: January 2005: Sarah
Staveteig (University of California at Berkeley, USA) was chosen for her work
in the World Population Program. Her paper addressed the issue of "Relative
Cohort Size and the Risk of Civil War, 1961-2001". Dec.
2004: The
new POPNET is available online now
(PDF): No. 36, Autumn 2004 Nov.
2004: Some
error is inevitable when predicting fertility, mortality and migration,
the components of population change. At a meeting in 2002, jointly organized
with the Vienna
Institute of Demography, leading experts representing alternative
approaches to scenario analysis and stochastic population forecasting
offered their views on dealing with this uncertainty.Their collected
papers are now being reprinted in two special issues of International
Statistical Review. Contents
and Introduction (pdf). Aug. 2004: Sanderson, W.C. 2004. The SEDIM Model: Version 0.1. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IR-04-041. This paper presents the SEDIM (Simple Economic Demographic Interaction Model) Model. The model illustrates how economic, demographic, and technological factors can be integrated into a rich, but still relatively simple framework that predicts rates of economic growth. SEDIM is designed to show the effects of demographic changes, including changes in the education composition of the population on economic performance ... To download the comeplete report, please click here ... July 2004: Wolfgang Lutz and Anne Goujon gave presentations at the meeting "Maps to the Future:Workshop on Making Education Projections for Policy", which was held at the Academy for Educational Development, Washington D.C., on July 12, 2004. Download or view the sildes by Wolfgang Lutz and Anne Goujon Conference: August 9-10 Aug. 2004: Brian O'Neill (POP and GGI) Brian O'Neill (USA), research scholar at IIASA since 2002, is one of twenty-five
recipients of the first European
Young Investigator (EURYI) Award. The €1 million award will
allow him and his IIASA colleagues to carry out his proposed five year
project on "Demography, uncertainty, and learning in integrated
assessment models of climate change." The overall aims of the
research are to improve integrated assessment models of climate change
and to develop new methods of applying them to the climate change issue.
June 2004: The this year summer students of IIASA's Young Scientists Summer Program arrived! POP hosts Laura Sokka (University of Helsinki, Finland) and Sarah Staveteig (University of California, Berkeley). For mor information on POP's YSSPers please click here... March 2004: Book presentation at the United Nations,
New York, USA (March
25, 2004) March
2004: Wolfgang
Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov, (Eds.). 2004. The End
of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human
Capital
Formation and Sustainable Develpment. March 2004: The Secretary-General of the United Nations has appointed Gui-Ying CAO of IIASAs Population Program to the UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) for the term 20042006. The committee is a subsidiary body of the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), which is responsible for formulating policy recommendations to UN member states and to the UN system on matters pertaining to development. Jan. 2004: The World
Population Program Research Plan for the year 2004 is now
available (in PDF format), extracted from the IIASA
Research Plan 2004, pp. 71-79. For more details on ongoing and past
research follow the navigation menu on the left. World Population Program Home Page Dec. 2003: Publication of an article "Long-term population decline in Europe: The relative importance of tempo effects and generation length" (in Population and Development Review 29(4):699-707), by J. Goldstein (Princeton University), W. Lutz, and S. Scherbov. This article is a follow-up to the recent article in Science Magazine. Oct. 2003: Visit to IIASA by Alex Ezeh, Executive Director of the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC) in Nairobi, a high quality pan-African research institute on population. Agreement of collaboration in which APHRC will serve as POP's regional partner in Africa (similar to the Asian MetaCentre in Singapore) Sep. 2003. Dramatic population aging may threaten Europe's social and economic well-being. To help policymakers respond to this predicament, IIASA's World Population Program (POP) has recently established collaboration with the Vienna Institute of Demography (of the Austrian Academy of Sciences) and other European demographic institutes. Read the new issue of POPNET (pdf), to learn what POP project leader Wolfgang Lutz and his colleagues say about the European demographic challenge and the work of this alliance. (Posted September 4th, 2003) Sep. 16, 2003: The POP Program was invited to give a seminar at
the World Bank in Washington,
D.C. on the IIASA method of projecting human capital formation (Speakers:
W. Lutz, A. Goujon, and A. Wils). Sep. 2003: The population project developed a new set of four
global population projections for use in the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment, a large international scientific effort to
assess the current conditions of and future outlook for global ecosystem
goods
and services. The population scenarios were derived using a newly
developed methodology for designing individual scenarios based on the
Program's existing probabilistic projections for the world. Aug. 13-20, 2003: 54th
Session of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) in Berlin:
In Berlin Wolfgang Lutz also spoke at an ISI press conference on current demographic challenges in Europe, which resulted in extensive coverage including the New York Times (Aging Europe Finds Its Pension Is Running), International Herald Tribune (The looming clash of generations) and a number of major Asian newspapers. March 2003: World Population Program Home Page Global Science Panel Report released at WSSD in Johannesburg, 31 August 2002: The IIASA IUSSP UNU Global Science Panel on Population and Environment has completed for the Johannesburg Summit a scientific assessment of the role of population in sustainable development. Population in Sustainable Development: Analyses, Goals, Actions, Realities is now being presented to the delegates. In addition to the panel's statement, the document includes background material on past goals and current trends. Wils,
Annababette (Ed.) 2002. Population-Development-Environment
in Mozambique. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Interim Report IR-02-049, 136p.
2002: Members of the IIASA IUSSP UNU Global Science Panel on Population and Environment have published a note to the editors of Nature stressing "If we do not put the human population at the core of the sustainable development agenda, our efforts to improve human well-being and preserve the quality of the environment will fail." Signatories include 8 IIASA scientists as well as Maurice Strong and Nafis Sadik. See full statement (pdf) on the Global Science Panel home page.
March 2002: Wolfgang Lutz, Alexia Prskawetz, and Warren C. Sanderson (Eds.) 2002. Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis. A supplement to Vol. 28, 2002 of Population and Development Review. How does the human population affect the natural environment and vice versa? Increasing research in this field calls for more appropriate analytical methods. In this first systematic treatment, the contributors demographers, other social scientists, and environmental scientists describe and critically examine key concepts and analytical approaches, both in theoretical terms and through examples and case studies. (Posted March 2002) World Population Program Home Page The
article on THE END OF WORLD POPULATION
GROWTH that appeared in the 02 August 2001 issue of Nature has
received wide press attention. Nature made the article its Featured Article
of the week. e will be a growing demographic divide. For many of today's poorest countries, population growth, reproductive health, and poverty will still be pressing issues. In more and more countries, including China, population aging will pose a major challenge. (posted August 2001). Nature 412: 543 - 545 (2001) © Macmillan Publishers Ltd.: includes supplementary information, methods, and references, http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v412/n6846/full/412543a0_fs.html. IIASA Reprint Research Report (RR-01-012) can be ordered for a handling charge of US$12 at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?RR01012 July 2001: Global Science Panel on Population and Environment:
June 2001: Lutz, Wolfgang and Anne Goujon. 2001. The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi-State Population Projection by Educational Attainment. In Population and Development Review 27(2):323-339, June 2001. June 2001: Population is the focus of the newest Options magazine (pdf). In an interview, Program Leader Wolfgang Lutz discusses ongoing work toward a general concept of population balance, which combines concerns about population growth and population aging. You'll also find results of recent PDE (population-development-environment) case studies on Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique, based on extensive modeling of the sustainable development implications of HIV/AIDS, including consideration of the cost of AIDS medication. Also in this issue: summaries of the first global population projections by level of education.
Feb. 2001: CD-ROM / Website: AFRICA IN THE ERA OF HIV/AIDS: Botswana's
Future, Mozambique's Future, Namibia's Future: Modeling Population and
Sustainable Development - Challenges in the Era of HIV/AIDS. World Population Program Home Page
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