2012 Young Scientists Summer Program

Angan Sengupta

Supervisor: Samir K.C
Co-Supervisor: Anne Goujon
Research Project: Projecting the Potential of the Demographic Dividend of India: Is there Enough Reason to be Optimistic?

Abstract: Debates are floating around the emergence of demographic dividend in India in recent times. There are two views: optimist and pessimist, regarding the potential impacts of this working age population on economic growth, which has largely been unexplored. India is going to be the largest contributor to the global demographic transition. Declining fertility rate along with a fall in infant and child mortality rate for last few years is resulting in an increase in proportion of the working age people in Indian population. It has been found that even today the fertility rate has been very high among less educated and lower socio-economic stratum people, with high but declining mortality rates. Hence, according to Demographic Transition Theory, it is most likely that there will be a high representation of these under-privileged people within the young working age population of India in near future. A mixed trend in the female labour force participation and falling juvenile sex ratio in recent years surely increase the ambiguity over the composition and characteristics of the future working age population of India. During this research our objective is to examine the age-sex composition of the population by background characteristics across states and to explore the potential of working age population, employing multi-state population projection techniques and econometric methods. In this study, we will utilize the data provided by the Census of India and various sample surveys. This research hopes to contribute to the policy interventions regarding the development of human resource and appropriate involvement of the labour-force in order to utilize the demographic dividend ensuring economic growth of India.

Biographical Sketch: Angan graduated with Economics from Calcutta University, India in 2006 and with Population studies from International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), India in 2008. He is currently a third year PhD scholar in Population Research Centre at Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bangalore, India. Angan is registered as an external PhD student in School for Public Health and Primary Care (CAPHRI) at the Maastricht University, Netherlands. Title of his doctoral thesis is ‘Double Burden of Malnutrition in India: Macro and Micro Perspectives’. His research interests include Fertility, Health, Environmental and Development Economics.

Collin Payne

Supervisor: Warren Sanderson
Research Project: Health Transitions and Social Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: Though the median age most of SSA is still quite young, early-life mortality declines, combined with slowing rates of fertility and persistently high rates of HIV, are expected to cause rapid population aging in upcoming decades (Heuveline 2004, Cohen & Menken 2006, Zaba et al. 2004). However, little research to date has addressed aging process in this resource-poor environment and even less is known about the protective role of social capital factors in this context. Gaining micro-level insight into the potentially protective role of social capital context would also provide invaluable information to conduct advanced cohort-component projections of this population. Using a multi-state life table (MSLT) approach, I will analyze the processes of mortality and disability using micro-level data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH). My analysis will use a logistic discrete-time hazard model to calculate rates of transitioning between health statuses, and generate MSLT functions from these transition rates through micro simulation. My work as an IIASA Young Scientist participant will extend this model by investigating the micro-level impact of social capital factors on the aging process in this context. Existing methodologies for MSLT calculation using longitudinal data are not able to incorporate time-varying co variates into analysis. In the context of SSA, time-varying factors such as HIV status, presence of adult children (and their HIV status), marital status, and agricultural profits may be key for healthy aging. My IIASA project will incorporate time-varying factors into this MSLT model using a simultaneous equations approach to limited dependent variable modeling. In my time at IIASA I propose to further develop and apply this method for incorporating time-varying co variates into MSLT calculation, and analyze how these co variates may reduce/delay disability onset and increase survivorship.

Biographical Sketch: Collin is currently a second-year PhD student in Demography at the University of Pennsylvania. His substantive research interests include health and mortality in the US and sub-Saharan Africa, HIV and sexual networks, and processes of aging and disability. Collin’s methodological work centers on multistate life table methodology, formal demography, multilevel modeling, and Bayesian estimation methods. He completed his undergraduate studies at the University of Wisconsin in Sociology and Quantitative Analysis in 2008. 

Sam Hyun Yoo

Supervisor: Bilal Barakat
Co-Supervisor: Tomas Sobotka
Research Project: Research Project: Impact of Female Education on the Process of
Childbearing Postponement and Recuperation in South Korea

Abstract: Many countries in Europe and East Asia have experienced low or very low fertility over the past several decades. Research has pointed out an increase in childbearing age as one main cause of low fertility. This is partly due to social changes: an improvement in female education, continuing gender inequality and economic insecurities. There is an ongoing debate on whether low fertility is a temporary phenomenon due to the shift of childbearing to later age that will eventually stall, or a permanent decline in the number of children. It is also not clear to what extent female education contributes to the postponement and recuperation process of childbearing. Despite numerous studies on low fertility, the situation in East Asia is much less understood due to geographical distance and cultural difference from Europe. With Census and birth registration data, this project provides a better understanding of fertility trends in South Korea and analyzes the contribution of women’s education to the process of childbearing postponement and recuperation. The result of this project is expected to demonstrate whether the process of childbearing postponement and recuperation in East Asia has a similar pattern to those of European countries.

Biographical Sketch: Sam is currently a third year PhD student in Sociology at Arizona State
University, Tempe, Arizona. He graduated from Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea, with a Bachelor’s degree in Sociology. He completed a Master’s degree in Sociology in 2007 from the same university His work primarily focuses on changes in fertility intention and fertility behavior. His research interests also cover family relations, migration, reproductive health and social networks.