Dynamic modeling of migration flows between Russia and CIS countries

Introduction

Management of migration flows is a necessary condition for the sustainable development of Russian regions and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The experience of the EU and the USA shows that that current international migration is characterized by growing complexity, as migration connects people and societies over larger distances and over an increasingly diverse array of countries and places of origin and destination. In the process of the migratory load increasing, the problem of migration management becomes more complicated from year to year. A decisive step toward liberalization of the migration policy in Russia was taken in 2007, when a simplified procedure of entry and registration entered into force. This led to an increase in migration flows from neighboring countries into Russia due to the latter's higher wages and overall better life quality. 

Methodology

The idea of the model is based on several economic concepts. The liberal development model assumes the removal of all barriers for free movement of the labor force. According to neoclassical economics, migration is caused by the difference in wage levels between countries, due to corresponding differences in labor and capital inputs. The model is thus based on constructions of dynamic game theory. The wage differential stimulates workers from countries of low wages to move to countries with higher salaries, while the investment in capital, which is essential for creation of the expected income, flows into a country with low wages. The concept of the standard theory of equilibrium is that inflow of migrant labor force to the region reduces the relative wage of the native workers. The model takes into account such demographic factors as age and educational group and allows the consequences of migration on the socioeconomic situation to be estimated.

Results

The dynamic model combines economic and demographic factors such as growth of labor force, age groups, and skill groups. The results allow construction of equilibrium trajectories, calibration and testing on real data, and analysis of the results of the modeling.

Conclusions

The result of work is a dynamic multiregional model that includes both economic and demographic factors. The model fits quite well to the real data of migration flows in Russian and the CIS region. It provides reasonable prognostic results both in terms of trends and quantitative estimations. The analysis of modeling results can be used by policymakers to assess the impact of migration flows on the socioeconomic situation in CIS countries.

Please note these Proceedings have received limited or no review from supervisors and IIASA program directors, and the views and results expressed therein do not necessarily represent IIASA, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.

Last edited: 19 August 2015