Methods for Economic Decision-Making under Uncertainty

The Methods for Economic Decision-Making under Uncertainty (MEDU) research group pursued ground-breaking research on forest fire adaptation in Europe, increasing capacity in the Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM) Program to handle computational requirements.

© Chez | Dreamstime

© Chez | Dreamstime

Research by MEDU focused on forest fires in Europe and adaptation options. The importance of the research was heavily underlined by the number of citations generated by MEDU’s paper on the topic "Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe” and interest by journalists and news outlets. Improvements to forest fire modeling are under way.

Forest fires and adaptation in Europe is top-ranked research

As at the end of January 2015 a study by the Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Methods for Economic Decision-Making under Uncertainty (MEDU) research group was the most cited of all papers ever published in a top Springer journal. More

Forest fires in Europe – Improved modeling accuracy at continental scale

A series of improvements were introduced to the Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program’s standalone fire model (SFM) which quantitatively estimates climate impacts on forest fires in Europe. More

REDD options hedge carbon price risk in energy sector

An Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) study on carbon price risks in the energy sector quantified the benefits and the role of financial instruments (options on REDD+ emission offsets) within available strategies to cope with the potential carbon price increase. More

Computing cluster serves more than quadrupled load

Computing power provided by the in-house Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Condor cluster more than quadrupled as compared to 2013 and reached an equivalent of 21 core-years in 2014. More

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Last edited: 07 May 2015


Nikolay Khabarov

Research Scholar Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program

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