Future scenarios for agriculture, forestry, and greenhouse gas emissions

The GLOBIOM model was used in 2014 to support various long-term prospective exercises focused on agriculture and forestry development.

© StockPhotoAstur | Dreamstime

© StockPhotoAstur | Dreamstime

GLOBIOM was used by Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) in collaboration with three other economic models for a foresight exercise on the future of agriculture conducted on behalf of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The project included a consultation phase with OECD country delegations to design the vision of the future and led to exploration of three contrasting scenarios showing more sustainability-minded, globalized, or regionalized worlds. The scenarios were then quantified by the modeling teams to provide insight into various policy options to face long term challenges in 2015.

In the framework of the FoodSecure FP7 projects, ESM also supported the development of scenarios on the future of the food and agricultural system, designed through international stakeholder consultation and a series of workshops. Four scenarios were designed with respect to different visions of equality and states of the environment. The main drivers of these scenarios were quantified by stakeholders in coordination with modelers, and GLOBIOM is currently implementing them to provide quantified results on future food provision, demand, trade, GHG emissions, and various food security indicators associated with each of these scenarios.

On a more regional scope and in collaboration with the Climate Change and Food Security Program of the the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), ESM participated in the development of scenarios in six regions which explored the future of food security in the context of climate change, socioeconomic development, environmental degradation, and political instability. In total, 25 diverse, plausible futures were developed and quantified using GLOBIOM. Insights from the stakeholder-driven and model results of the southeast Asia scenarios were used by the Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries to develop its Climate Change Priorities Action Plan for Agriculture.


[1] Vervoort JM,  Thornton PK, Kristjanson P, Förch W, Ericksen PJ, Kok K, Ingram JSI, Herrero M, Palazzo A, Helfgott AES, Wilkinson A,  Havlík P,  Mason-D'Croz D,  Jost C.  (2014). Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change


Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, France

International Food Policy Research Institute, USA

Food and Agriculture Organisation, Italy

LEI-Wageningen University, Netherlands

Prospex BVA, Belgium

PBL, Netherlands

Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS) Program of the CGIAR

Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK

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Last edited: 29 April 2015


Petr Havlík

Program Director and Principal Research Scholar Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program

Research Group Leader and Principal Research Scholar Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group - Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program

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