Policy interventions of future emissions

In 2014 the Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases (MAG) Program completed a new generation of projections of global future air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions that outline the impacts of future policy decisions.

© Kcphotos | Dreamstime

© Kcphotos | Dreamstime

The new projections were developed within the Evaluating the CLimate and Air Quality ImPacts of Short-livEd Pollutants (ECLIPSE) project of the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU FP7) for 168 world regions and in close collaboration with a large number of national teams. This was facilitated by national implementations of the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model for specific countries, which were then used by local teams for their own national policy analyses of co-benefits. In particular, national versions of the GAINS model are now available for IIASA National Member Organization (NMO) countries (including China, India, Indonesia, India, Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, Sweden), as well as for France, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, Thailand, and the Eastern European, Caucasian, and Central Asian (EECCA) countries.

Projections are now available for emissions of 18 short- and long-lived substances for different assumptions on climate and air quality policies. Most importantly, by covering the full conceivable range of future policy interventions ranging from policy failures with implementing current legislation to the maximum technically feasible reductions, they facilitate coherent assessments of the interplay between air quality and climate policies.

These projections, which extend to 2050, provide important input both for national analyses as well as for international model experiments of global circulation (GCM) climate models and of chemical transport (CTM) models, for example, under the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, the Arctic Council.

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Last edited: 02 April 2015

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