IIASA leadership of the field of systems analysis continued in 2015, and the institute hosted its first Systems Analysis conference, bringing together international researchers to discuss the current state and future directions of the field. IIASA-led advances in systems analysis in 2015 contributed to reducing the risk of collapse in financial networks and understanding uncertainty in estimating greenhouse gas emissions, among many other examples.
The Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Program played a key role in the proposal for a large-scale, multi-year research project to analyze the synergies and trade-offs between different natural resource systems: Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL). more
The World Population Program (POP), with three other IIASA programs—Energy (ENE), Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases (MAG), and Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) – continues to implement the crosscutting project “Accounting for socioeconomic heterogeneity in IIASA models” started in 2014. more
The Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Program played a key role in the proposal for a large-scale, multi-year research project to analyze the synergies and trade-offs between different natural resource systems: Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL). more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers model interconnected food, water, and energy systems and advance methods of stochastic optimization. This can help to design management strategies that are robust with respect to inherent uncertainties and risks. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers apply contemporary approaches to analyze newly available “big data” from social media datasets to find new insights. more
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a particular challenge for sustainability. Decisions need to be made now to avoid unsustainable futures, but the basis for these decisions, in terms of both data and models, encompasses vast inherent uncertainties. Proper accounting of uncertainties when verifying mitigation efforts and analyzing scenarios of future emissions is the focus of several Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program studies. more
Researchers in the Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program contribute to the understanding of sustainability by applying the experiences of their particular studies, each of which deals with the concept in its own way. This allows for development of diverse, system-analytic approaches to quantifying sustainability. more
Researchers in the Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program make advances in contemporary control theory related to control under incomplete information, control of distributed systems, and construction of the attainability domains. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers apply contemporary approaches to analyze newly available “big data” from social media datasets to find new insights. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers develop and study stylized economic growth models and advance methods of the optimal control theory needed to analyze such models, also taking inherent uncertainties into account. Long-term economic growth is driven by the dynamics of natural, physical, and human capital and is subject to feedback with the environment. more
Understanding the structure and dynamics of worldwide vegetation patterns is critical for predicting future climatic change. Research by the Evolution and Ecology Program (EEP) applies mathematical models to elucidate the formation and maintenance of vegetation diversity, structure, and functioning. more
The Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Program played a key role in the proposal for a large-scale, multi-year research project to analyze the synergies and trade-offs between different natural resource systems: Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL). more
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a particular challenge for sustainability. Decisions need to be made now to avoid unsustainable futures, but the basis for these decisions, in terms of both data and models, encompasses vast inherent uncertainties. Proper accounting of uncertainties when verifying mitigation efforts and analyzing scenarios of future emissions is the focus of several Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program studies. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers develop and analyze stylized models of biological populations (e.g., fish or forests), in which individuals’ growth significantly depends on their size or age and on the size or age of others. The aim is to understand the consequences of various management strategies, and to identify those, which can optimize typical economic (e.g., profit) and environmental (e.g., biodiversity) objectives. more
Advanced System Analysis (ASA) Program researchers develop game-theoretic methods to better understand the strategic interactions between multiple agents and model the behavior of countries involved in international environmental agreements to find ways of inducing cooperation. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers develop dynamic network models of ecological, economic, and social systems; in particular, financial systemic risk and cascading failures in the inter-bank lending network are studied. more
The successful online science tools and resources (models and databases) developed jointly by the Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) and Energy (ENE) Programs were maintained and expanded in 2015. more
The successful online tools and resources (models and databases) developed jointly by the Energy (ENE) and Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) programs have been maintained and further expanded in 2015. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers model interconnected food, water, and energy systems and advance methods of stochastic optimization. This can help to design management strategies that are robust with respect to inherent uncertainties and risks. more
In 2015, the Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Program contributed substantially to a special issue of the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change, exploring research on uncertainty and global transformations. more
Stochastic GLOBIOM has been used to analyze interdependencies and trade-offs between structural and financial measures for hedging systemic risks and food, energy, water, environmental security in land use systems, which can be induced by climate change and weather variability. more
The Evolution and Ecology Program (EEP), in collaboration with other IIASA programs, has been investigating the potential for cascading failures in interconnected systems, such as financial systems and trade networks. more
The World in 2050 (TWI2050) is an international collaboration launched by IIASA with international partners that will involve almost all research programs at IIASA with a focus on deriving viable pathways for achieving all 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). more
Achieving all of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be a remarkable challenge, requiring the most rigorous, integrated science. To aid this endeavor, the Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Program contributed to a major report providing the first scientific assessment of the SDGs. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers develop dynamic network models of ecological, economic, and social systems; in particular, financial systemic risk and cascading failures in the inter-bank lending network are studied. more
Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers develop dynamic network models of ecological, economic, and social systems; in particular, financial systemic risk and cascading failures in the inter-bank lending network are studied. more
Arnab Banerjee, of Visva-Bharati University, India, used a South African estuary, Mdloti, to examine the impacts of keystone species on ecosystem function. more
Erik Nilsson, of Lund University, Sweden, developed a risk modeling tool to estimate the adaptive capacities of communities surrounding Lake Chad in the face of future climate change. more
Zhimin Mao of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, USA, analyzed a proposed action plan to cut air pollution in China, showing that enable rapid reduction of air pollution can be achieved. more
Zhaomiao Guo, of the University of California, USA, used a stochastic game-theoretic model to study energy security and energy capacity issues in the USA, China, and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). more
Dian Andriana, of the Institute of Technology Bandung, Indonesia, used Radial Basis Function (RBF) Neural Networks to help reduce the uncertainty around predictions based on climate-related data. more
Natalia Borisevich of the Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science, Russia, estimated the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by specially protected natural areas (SPNAs), showing that good management can result in great economic gains. more
Tejas Rawal, of the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, used model simulations to explore the best policy options for achieving a sustainable transport network in Tamil Nadu, India. more
Natalia Borisevich of the Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science, Russia, estimated the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by specially protected natural areas (SPNAs), showing that good management can result in great economic gains. more
Arda Aktaş, of Stony Brook University, USA, investigated how “subjective age”—how long people think they have left to live—changes with characteristics such as gender and education. more
Daniel Jessie of the Advanced Systems Analysis Program is working to introduce a new mathematical approach to understanding the nature of dynamical network processes where standard mathematical tools can only provide analytical solutions in the simplest cases. more
Aleksandra Falkiewicz of the Lodz University of Technology, Poland, used network models to examine the relationships between groups of organisms, and showed that although simpler models are sufficient in some cases, the more complex ‘microscopic’ models do provide extra detail. more
Artem Baklanov of the Advanced Systems Analysis Program is analyzing iterated social dilemmas that will help reveal features of stability of interactions, thereby helping individuals learn, though interaction, how to cope with behavioral uncertainty, understand the interests of others, and adapt to changing social environments. more
Célian Colon, of the Ecole Polytechnique, France, examined how the behavior of companies connected by trade links can affect the risk of economic crash, showing that targeted regulations or incentive schemes have the potential to increase stability. more
Matthias Wildemeersch, of the Advanced Systems Analysis and Ecosystems Services and Management programs, used systems analysis to examine two very different issues, the analysis and control of migration within an economic union, and understanding insect outbreaks to aid forest management strategies. more
Vincent Hin, of the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, explored the evolution of cannibalism in fish, showing that harvesting from populations with cannibalistic tendencies can lead to stock collapse at lower fishing mortality rates than for non-cannibalistic populations. more
Hanna ten Brink, of the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, demonstrated that size-selective harvesting can affect the evolution of metamorphosis in exploited fish populations. more
Gergely Boza, of the Evolution and Ecology Program, is working on two projects; the first examining the strategies plants use to influence microorganisms inhabiting their root systems and the second focusing on evolution and stability of human cooperative behavior. more
Oludunsin Tunrayo Arodudu, of the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research and University of Potsdam, Germany, used human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and life cycle assessment (LCA) frameworks to quantify the sustainability of agriculture-based bioenergy. more
Henrik Sjödin, of the Evolution and Ecology Program, is using mathematical models to show how migration between groups can transform simple, non-cooperative communities into highly cooperative ones. The results may help improve governance of common goods. more
Mehdi Shojaei of the Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research, Germany, used biological trait analysis to explore the how seafloor ecosystems function. more
Gillian Foster, of the Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria, estimated the future demand for ethylene in the US and the impact of gas prices. more
Zhaomiao Guo, of the University of California, USA, used a stochastic game-theoretic model to study energy security and energy capacity issues in the USA, China, and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). more
Dian Andriana, of the Institute of Technology Bandung, Indonesia, used Radial Basis Function (RBF) Neural Networks to help reduce the uncertainty around predictions based on climate-related data. more
