Risk analysis and modeling

In 2014 RPV researchers contributed to a methodological breakthrough in the assessment of “fat-tail” extreme riverine flood risk distributions by developing an advanced copula approach that makes it possible to take account of increasing tail dependencies and derive improved probability-based flood-loss estimates across Europe [1]. These assessments until now were made without taking into account spatial correlations between river basins, leading to a serious underestimation of the risks (see Figure 1). This analysis has important implications for managing risks at the European scale, for instance, through the pan-European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF).

Figure 1. Probabilistic estimates of annual European flood losses using dependence and independence models for current and future scenarios (click on image to enlarge).

Last edited: 02 April 2015