Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World: Method Overview and Data Revision

The study by Jonas et al. (2014) “Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World” introduces the emissions-temperature-uncertainty (ETU) framework that allows any country to understand its near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context which includes all countries and stipulates global warming to range between 2 and 4 °C. The revised and updated data set supporting the ETU framework is the basis for analyzing greenhouse gas emission targets scaled from global to regional (here EU 27) to national levels (here Austria).

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The study of Jonas et al. (2014) has received interest, notably by the Austrian Climate Research Programme [ACRP], regarding the use of the results at national scales. The revised data set supporting the ETU framework was created as part of the “ClimTrans 2050” ACRP project. The revised data set is available via IIASA’s PURE repository: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13295/, together with the IIASA Working Paper WP-16-009. The Working Paper recalls the background information on the ETU framework of Jonas et al. (2014), and provides a detailed description of the study’s updated input data and revised results.

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Last edited: 08 November 2017


Matthias Jonas

Guest Senior Research Scholar Advancing Systems Analysis Program


Piotr Zebrowski

Research Scholar Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program



Research project

ClimTrans 2050

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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