Description of Three Scenarios
The descriptions of the three different scenarios are presented here:
- The 'constant transition rates' (short 'constant') scenario assumes that no improvements are made over time in the proportion of a young cohort that acquires different levels of education, while fertility, mortality, and migration trends follow the median demographic assumptions, as discussed above.
- The 'convergence to North American transition rates by 2030' (short 'American') scenario assumes that all regions experience linear improvements in their enrolment that by 2025-2030 will bring them to the school enrolment levels of North America today. All children will receive at least some primary education and up to 98 percent will receive some secondary education. The participation in tertiary education will increase to 55 percent. The 'American' scenario also implies a closing of the gender gap at all levels of the educational scheme by 2030.
- The 'ICPD' scenario reflects the quantitative goals concerning education that were agreed at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994. These explicit goals are mainly related to the spread of education in developing countries and refer especially to girls. Specifically, the Cairo Program of Action calls for:
- Elimination of the gender gap in primary and secondary school education by 2005 (operationalized as female enrolment reaching male levels by 2005-2010).
- All girls and boys shall have complete access to primary education by 2015 (operationalized as linear interpolation to period 2015-2020).
- The net primary school enrolment ratio for children of both sexes should be at least 90 percent by 2010 (operationalized by 2010-2015).
Countries that have achieved the goal of universal primary education are urged to extend education and training at secondary and higher levels. This less precise goal was operationalized as follows. In developing countries the transition rate from primary to secondary reaches 75 percent by 2025-2030 for both sexes. Transition to tertiary education increases by 5 percentage points until 2025-2030, except for North America, where it is already above 50 percent.