EU Clean Air Policy Package updates

The updated scenario results in the same relative reduction in premature mortality as the original Commission proposal (52% by 2030 compared to 2005) with the same gap closure of 67%. Hence, the overall equivalent reduction of PM precursor emissions (primary PM_2.5, NOx, SO₂, VOC and NH₃) remains the same compared to the earlier proposal.

However, the improved information on PM_2.5 emission sources in 2005 and their likely future development suggests a larger decline of PM_2.5 emissions in the baseline case, requiring fewer additional measures to achieve the targeted reduction in premature mortality. This also softens the emission reduction requirements for the other pollutants, and reduces costs for the additional measures by one third compared to the original proposal.

Where the national scenarios provided by Member States showed features that could not be matched with coherent EU‐wide scenarios, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. This demonstrated the attainability of re‐optimized emission ceilings with available technical emission control measures for the 19 Member States that provided such national projections.

The EU Commission's Climate and Energy Policy Package envisages substantially lower CO₂ emissions in the future, with the co‐benefit of lower SO₂, NOx and PM_2.5 emissions compared to those assumed for the Clean Air Policy Package. Thus, the recent agreement on climate and energy policy offers an additional margin for the attainability of the emission reduction requirements.

Further information is available in the reports:

• TSAP Report #16a:  Adjusted historic emission data, projections, and optimized emission reduction targets for 2030 – A comparison with COM data 2013. Part A: Results for EU-28. Version 1.1 (January 2015)
• TSAP Report #16b:  Adjusted historic emission data, projections, and optimized emission reduction targets for 2030 – A comparison with COM data 2013. Part B: Results for Member States. Version 1.1 (January 2015)
• Earlier TSAP reports

Last edited: 02 May 2015