Gabriel Felbermayr visited IIASA

Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model

We estimate sectoral gravity models of trade to quantify the effects of various steps of European product market integration. We embed these results in a corresponding Ricardian general equilibrium trade model with input-output linkages to simulate the trade and welfare effects of a disintegration of the EU. We show that the welfare effects from the single market dominate, but that the gains from Schengen- and Eurozone membership are substantial for many countries as well. Bootstrapping standard errors, we find statistically significant effects for EU insiders while effects on EU outsiders are often insignificant. Percentage losses are more pronounced in more central EU members, while larger and richer countries tend to lose less. The effects of income transfers reveal some surprising patterns driven by terms-of-trade adjustments.

Prof. Gabriel Felbermayr, PhD was born on June 24, 1976 in Steyr, Austria. After his studies in Economics and Trade at the University of Linz, he went to Florence, Italy, for his doctoral studies and to Tübingen, Germany, for his habilitation. Since 2011, he holds both a position as Director International Economics at the Ifo Institute and as Professor of Economics, esp. International Economics, at the Department of Economics of Ludwig-Maximilians-University in Munich. Before that, he was Professor at the University of Hohenheim (near Stuttgart, Germany (2009-2011)), Assistant Professor at the University of Tübingen, Germany (2005-2009), worked as an Associate Consultant for McKinsey & Co. in Vienna, Austria (2004-2005), and was an Assistant Professor at the Institute for Economics at Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Austria. Gabriel Felbermayr has various roles and positions. The most important are: Member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy, Associate Editor European Economic Review; Associate Editor, International Review of Economics and Finance; Scientific Advisory Board, Institute for Applied Economic Research, Tübingen; External Research Fellow, Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalization and Economic Policy (GEP), University of Nottingham. For his research, Felbermayr was awarded several prices. His research deals with international trade agreements, trade and labor market outcomes, trade and environment.