The typical annual GDP growth rate (on average 2.7% in 1975-2010) may not be reachable due the asymmetric development of the global economic system; simultaneously some of the traditionally strong exporting industries (such as forest and electronics industries) are focusing their investments on abroad. The new growing sectors such as the IT sector and various components of the service sector have not shown to be able to replace the loss of exports of the manufacturing sectors. Besides, regions abandoned by large employers do not become attractive sites for the new service industries. Decision makers are facing tough decisions; hence they need better understanding on the dynamics of the transition phase as well as science-based tools for supporting decisions.
Economic network representing intermediate good flows between economic sectors export and import flows for three Finnish regions – Pori, Joensuu and Oulu are studied. It is found that in all three regions the most effective policy intervention to stimulate local production is increasing the state subsidies to unemployed and the state demand.
Three approaches are used to model ecomony of the regions: network analysis, multipliers and agent-based modeling.
Dream Valley simulator (DV) is an agent-based model of a regional development covering several features, such as heterogeneity and bounded rationality of agents, stochasticity in implementing the decisions, interactions of agents and their adaptation and learning. Agents are individuals, companies and the government acting in the physical environment. Using the Dream Valley simulator allows for experimenting different policy options and their impact on the regional economics and its population, in other words the Dream Valley simulator is an artificial laboratory for experimenting with regional economies The region specific customized Dream Valley will be validated by historical data and expert estimates. It tests the vulnerability of the regions to a number of shock scenarios where economic shocks are exogenous to the regions.
A policy report to the Ministry of Employment and Economy summarizes policy recommendations; three papers presenting the models, simulation results and conclusions are being prepared.
Last edited: 07 November 2016
Program Director and Principal Research Scholar Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Guest Emeritus Research Scholar Cooperation and Transformative Governance Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Research Scholar Cooperation and Transformative Governance Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Research Scholar Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program
2012 - 2013
11 Mar 2013 - 12 Mar 2013
17 August 2013
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313