MESSAGE-MAGICC
Linking the energy model MESSAGE with the climate model MAGICC allows the integrated analysis of (probabilistic) climate outcomes that result from detailed energy system transformations. The framework is used for the development of internally consistent energy-economic greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios.
How MESSAGE-MAGICC works
MAGICC is a suite of coupled gas-cycle, climate, and ice-melt models integrated into a single software package.
MAGICC receives inputs from the MESSAGE model with respect to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulfur dioxide (SO2), reactive gases (CO, NOx, VOCs), and halocarbons.
MAGICC then relates GHG emissions and their outputs (physical and chemical sink processes) to changes in the atmospheric carbon concentration. From these inputs, the MAGICC model estimates net carbon flows and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as well as changes in radiative forcing, temperature, and sea level.
If desired, MAGICC can also estimate a range of temperature change or probability of staying within a given warming target (e.g., the 2°C global warming target).
FAST FACTS
MESSAGE-MAGICC estimates net carbon flows and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, changes in radiative forcing, temperature, and sea level.
MESSAGE-MAGICC was first used to generate scenarios for the IPCC Third Assessment Report, published in 2001.
MESSAGE-MAGICC was used in IIASA research for the Global Energy Assessment.
Global temperature increase projections for the GEA Mix scenario pathway.
Other Publications
Wigley, T.M.L., Raper, S.C.B., 1997: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC Version 2.3.), The Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK.
Wigley, T.M.L. 2003: MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1: Technical Manual, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, USA, October 2003.