Projecting elderly populations in ageing society

MEDIA

IIASA researcher Dalkhat Ediev gave a two days lecture about the methods and issues of measuring population aging at the Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia, 23-24 May 2018.

Abstract

Projecting elderly populations in ageing society: methods and issues

1. Population ageing and elderly: intro
2. Population projections. Issues in mortality estimation and projection. Data quality. Lifespan expansions: models and paradigms.
3. Elderly households and familial networks

Summary

Increasing size and share of elderly population brings important research agenda and poses methodological challenges in population estimation and projection. These include extending life tables to older ages, projecting mortality trends, projecting elderly households and family networks. The course will cover these topics focusing on estimating and extending life tables; alternative paradigms in projecting mortality trends; and producing household and familial-network projections. Availability and accuracy of life tables at old age is a key input for analysis and projection of ageing populations. When estimating life tables to older age, we will discuss how to improve models by Horiuchi-Coale and Mitra as well as the classical life table method when dealing with age exaggeration and/or abridged input life tables. We will also learn how to improve accuracy of extrapolations of life table to older ages when using extrapolation models, such as the Gompertz or logistic ones. Conventional projections tended to underestimate mortality improvements and population growth at old age. We will discuss sources and alternative ways to address of this shortcoming. Using the population projection as the starting point, we will discuss how to build household and familial-network projections consistent with the observed tendencies and available population projection.