Scientific update
Young Scientists Summer Program 2015
The proceedings of the Late Summer Workshop contain summaries of the research results obtained during the YSSP. These were presented in a workshop at IIASA on 24–25 August 2015.
The proceedings receive limited review. These views and opinions are made available as a matter of record. They do not necessarily represent those of IIASA, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the research work. The below is an overview of all the summaries available at the time of finalization of the proceedings.
A forward-looking age based on longevity expectations
Arda Aktaş, of Stony Brook University, USA, investigated how “subjective age”—how long people think they have left to live—changes with characteristics such as gender and education. More
Neural networks to analyze uncertainty in prognostic model runs
Dian Andriana, of the Institute of Technology Bandung, Indonesia, used Radial Basis Function (RBF) Neural Networks to help reduce the uncertainty around predictions based on climate-related data. More
Spatio-temporal assessment of HANPP based LCA indicators for sustainability assessment of agro-bioenergy related ecosystem services
Oludunsin Tunrayo Arodudu, of the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research and University of Potsdam, Germany, used human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and life cycle assessment (LCA) frameworks to quantify the sustainability of agriculture-based bioenergy. More
Implications of electricity transmission for integrating variable renewable energies
Anne-Perrine Avrin, of the University of California, USA, investigated how electricity transmission can facilitate integration of renewable energy by better matching generation with demand. More
Organization of specially protected areas of local importance: Krasnoyarsk territory, Russia
Natalia Borisevich of the Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science, Russia, estimated the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by specially protected natural areas (SPNAs), showing that good management can result in great economic gains. More
Nutrition transition and the future of food demand in India
Kakoli Borkotoky, of the International Institute for Population Sciences, India, investigated the trends in dietary patterns in India, showing that total calorie intake increases with education, but the consumption of some foods, such as red meat and alcohol, declined with an increase in education. More
Fisheries-induced evolution of metamorphosis
Hanna ten Brink, of the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, demonstrated that size-selective harvesting can affect the evolution of metamorphosis in exploited fish populations. More
A dismal future? Toward a new model of labor market dynamics based on evolving demographic variables
Miguel Poblete Cazenave, of Stony Brook University, USA, estimated optimal retirement ages based on income, health status, and life expectancy in the context of increasing life expectancies. More
Assessing the mitigation potential of ammonia emissions from agriculture in China
Chuchu Chen, of the Tsinghua University, China, modeled ammonia emissions to identify the best agricultural management for reducing air pollution. More
Disruption risks in adaptive inter-firm networks
Célian Colon, of the Ecole Polytechnique, France, examined how the behavior of companies connected by trade links can affect the risk of economic crash, showing that targeted regulations or incentive schemes have the potential to increase stability. More
The impact of non-renewable groundwater use on global food security toward 2050
Jens de Bruijn, of Utrecht University, the Netherlands, developed a water balance for 26 major crops around the world, giving a detailed picture of how and where groundwater is being used unsustainably. More
Spatio-temporal analysis of droughts: Statistical characterization
Julio Enrique Herrera Estrada, of Princeton University, USA, used different models and climate scenarios to investigate the impacts of droughts and heatwaves on water resources, energy production, and food security, as well as the interactions between them. More
Coastal disasters in China: Impacts, risks, and resilience
Jiayi Fang, of Beijing Normal University, China, demonstrated that although marine disaster reduction measures by the Chinese government have been effective, they will face new challenges under climate change. More
Towards sustainable livestock production systems: Analyzing ecological constraints to grazing intensity
Tamara Fetzel of the Institute of Social Ecology, Austria, assessed grazing intensity worldwide and examined whether it can be sustainably increased to meet future food demands. More
Future ethylene demand in the era of shale gas: An economic and environmental assessment of a sustainable technology
Gillian Foster, of the Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria, estimated the future demand for ethylene in the US and the impact of gas prices. More
Risks of correlated wheat yield losses in the world’s breadbaskets
Franziska Gaupp, of the University of Oxford, UK, used the copula methodology to model drought events and subsequent yield losses in regions that produce large proportions of the world’s food. More
Impact of strategic interactions between USA, China, and OPEC regarding the US domestic transportation fuel mix
Zhaomiao Guo, of the University of California, USA, used a stochastic game-theoretic model to study energy security and energy capacity issues in the USA, China, and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). More
Impact of EU energy policy on ground level ozone pollution
Carlijn Hendriks, of the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), applied IIASA models to examine how EU energy policies influencing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land use will affect ground-level ozone pollution. More
Fisheries-induced evolution of cannibalism
Vincent Hin, of the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, explored the evolution of cannibalism in fish, showing that harvesting from populations with cannibalistic tendencies can lead to stock collapse at lower fishing mortality rates than for non-cannibalistic populations. More
Technological capability of the Chinese wind turbine industry: An international comparative study
Rui Hu, of Imperial College London, UK, conducted an international comparative study to examine China’s wind energy knowledge and technology accumulation, showing that China is making rapid progress. More
Ecological public goods games in spatially heterogeneous environments
Jaideep Joshi, of the Indian Institute of Science, examined the evolutionary conditions under which a “tragedy of the commons” can be averted. More
Urban versus rural emission contributions to air pollution in India
Alexandra Karambelas, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA, explored how urban and rural air pollution combines to influence regional air quality in India, and how this might change under different policy conditions. More
Hydro-climatology: What is needed in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya?
Asif Khan, of Cambridge University, UK, assessed the accuracy of hydro-climatic studies for six sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), showing that precipitation datasets and hydrological models should be carefully selected and tested, particularly for mountain regions. More
Integrating water and energy models for optimal long-term resource management
Zarrar Khan, of the Comillas Pontifical University, Spain; TUDelft, the Netherlands; and the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, created an integrated water and energy model, demonstrating that the water-energy nexus is crucial to resource management strategies. More
Should I stay or should I go? A plural rationality approach for sustainable disaster risk reduction in Mozambique
Jenni Koivisto, of Karlstad University, Sweden, investigated the different approaches stakeholders take to deal with flood risks and implement solutions. More
The effect of family care on the self-reported health of care-givers and -receivers: A New Delhi case study
Dolly Kumari, of the International Institute for Population Sciences, India, examined how care of the elderly can affect the health of both care-giver and receiver. More
Global nitrogen and phosphorus pollution for major crop production
Wenfeng Liu, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich and the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, used a biophysical crop model to identify hotspots of global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution. More
Early identification of the human drivers affecting the groundwater system in Yucatan, Mexico
Yolanda Lopez Maldonado of the Ludwig-Maximilians Universität Germany, used material flow analysis to help improve water security in Yucatan, Mexico. More
Assessing the effectiveness of the air pollution action plan in the Pearl River Delta region
Zhimin Mao of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, USA, analyzed a proposed action plan to cut air pollution in China, showing that enable rapid reduction of air pollution can be achieved. More
Gas/liquid fuels as storage for intermittent renewable electricity: Systems performance and localization in the alpine region
Sennai Mesfun, of the Luleå University of Technology, Sweden, used the IIASA BeWhere model to investigate whether the feasibility of renewable energy can be enhanced by using gas/liquid fuels as power storage. More
Impacts of spectral nudging on the simulation of present-day rainfall patterns over southern Africa
Mavhungu Muthige, of the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa, used a “spectral-nudging technique” to improve predictions of rainfall pattern and seasonality. More
Socio-hydrological relationships and risks in the Lake Chad district in Chad
Erik Nilsson, of Lund University, Sweden, developed a risk modeling tool to estimate the adaptive capacities of communities surrounding Lake Chad in the face of future climate change. More
Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from paddy field in China under climate change based on the coupling of DNDC, DSSAT, and AEZ models
Yilong Niu, of the Shanghai Institute of Technology and Climate Change, China, coupled three agricultural models together to give an accurate picture of greenhouse gas emissions from rice cultivation. More
System approach to integration of labels from crowdsourcing campaigns
Oleg Nurmukhametov, of the Ural Federal University, Russia, explored how to get the most out of citizen science by using a machine learning algorithm to increase the reliability of the data produced. More
Is exploring patient register data a key to improving primary health care process of type 2 diabetes patients?
Teppo Repo, of the University of Eastern Finland, explored the spatial differences in treatment outcomes for patients with type 2 diabetes, in an effort to help optimize use of health care resources in North Karelia, Finland. More
The influence of spatial and temporal intermittency of renewable energy on storage deployment in the alpine region
Daniel Sanchez, of the University of California, USA, investigated the optimal deployment of renewable energy in the Alps, while balancing the twin concerns of climate change and ecosystem protection. More
Trait-based community dynamics of a North-Sea ecosystem
Mehdi Shojaei of the Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research, Germany, used biological trait analysis to explore the how seafloor ecosystems function. More
Displacement of fuelwood due to use of improved cooking fuels in India
Devyani Singh, of the University of British Columbia, Canada, examined recent trends in India for replacing fuelwood with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as the main source of household cooking energy. More
What’s missing from Ostrom? Design principles, cultural theory, and Faroese grindadráp
Benedict Singleton, of Örebro University, Sweden, compared Elinor Ostrom’s design principles with cultural theory to understand the situations that arise when common pool resources are harvested, and improve management. More
Integrated systems analysis approach to robust energy, food, and water provision in coal-rich areas of China
Cuiqing Sun, of the China University of Mining & Technology, applied integrated modeling to tackle interconnected environmental and socioeconomic issues, using Shanxi, China, as a case study. More
Estimating changes in net primary productivity of forests considering vegetation shift and climate change
Sunyong Sung, of Seoul National University, Republic of Korea, used the IIASA Global Forest Model (G4M) to investigate the impacts of climate change on the net primary productivity (NPP) of forests on the Korean Peninsula, showing that NPP would increase under all scenarios tested. More
Stakeholder analysis for better policymaking: A case of plug-in cars in the UK
Using the case study of the promotion of electric cars in the UK, Anton Talantsev, of Stockholm University, Sweden, developed an approach to identify and profile policy stakeholders, a vital step in achieving successful policy. More
Renewable energy production from municipal solid waste to mitigate climate change: A spatially explicit assessment for Malaysia
Sie Ting Tan, of the Universiti Teknologi, Malaysia, investigated the potential of mitigating climate change and reducing landfill by producing energy from municipal solid waste. More
Household income distribution, basic needs and total energy consumption: a case study of Brazil
Luis Gustavo Tudeschini, of the University of São Paulo, Brazil, investigated living conditions in the country, and how much energy and resultant carbon emissions it would require to improve them. More
Consumers’ willingness to pay to improve water supply services in rural Kazakhstan
Kamshat Tussupova, of Lund University, Sweden, aimed to help improve water policy efficiency by integrating the views of stakeholders into water supply planning. More
Taking differences in institutional quality into account in global forest modeling
Johanna Wehkamp, of the Technical University of Berlin and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, examined which countries have the most effective institutions to reduce deforestation. More
Ecological network analysis of embodied fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Beijing
Siyuan Yang, of Beijing Normal University, China, used input-output analysis to investigate particulate matter pollution, showing that the petroleum, coking, and chemicals sector was the main source of direct PM2.5 emission. More
Hydrofluorocarbon emissions and mitigation strategies for China using the GAINS model
Zihan Zhai, of Peking University, China, studied the actions needed to reduce hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China, showing that there is substantial potential for minimizing China’s HFC emissions by using alternatives. More
Modeling the biogeochemical process of the phosphorus cycle and assessing the phosphorus fertilization in China
Jie Zhang, of Tsinghua University, China, investigated ways of improving agricultural management to maintain crop yields while reducing phosphorus pollution. More
The influence of property size on sustainable agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso, Brazil
Erasmus zu Ermgassen, of the University of Cambridge, UK, used a recursive dynamic model to test different scenarios for the transition to sustainable agriculture in Mato Grosso. More
Further information