Scientific update
Young Scientists Summer Program 2014
The Proceedings of the Late Summer Workshop contains summaries of the research results obtained during the YSSP. These were presented in a workshop at IIASA on 25–26 August 2014.
The Proceedings receives limited review. The views and opinions it contains are made available as a matter of record. They do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the research work.
The below is an overview of all the summaries available at the time of finalization of the proceedings.
Climate change and malaria incidence in South Africa
Gbenga Abiodun of the University of the Western Cape, South Africa, studied the impacts of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. More
Quantifying the impact of R&D investment on energy pathways for sustainable development
Robert Barron of the University of Massachusetts, USA, examined the welfare impact of R&D investment on the supply side across a range of demand, transportation sector, and climate policy scenarios. More
Modeling of live biomass and net primary production of northern Eurasia forests
Volodymyr Blyshchyk of the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine improved the models needed to estimate carbon stock in live biomass and carbon flux between the atmosphere and vegetation. More
Long and dry: Testing the vulnerability to drought of London’s water supply system
Edoardo Borgomeo of the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK, presented a sensitivity-based approach to testing the vulnerability of water resources systems to intense and persistent drought conditions, using a case study of London, UK. More
Potential sustainable locations for photovoltaic water pumping systems
Pietro Campana of Mälardalen University, Sweden, undertook a project to identify the suitability and optimal location of grassland areas for the implementation of photovoltaic (PV) water pumping systems across China. More
Community resilience in the 2011 flood disaster in a remote
area of eastern Indonesia
Sherly da Costa, of Friedrich-Schiller-University, Germany, analyzed the community perception of flood risk and key sources of community resilience to flooding in East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. More
Analysis of historical cost reductions in Brazilian ethanol production
Guilherme De Paula of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, USA, conducted a project to explain the significant cost reductions in sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil since 1975. More
Soybean production in China under climate change: Analysisof the effect of adaptive techniques based on DSSAT and AEZ-China model fusion
Qiuying Ding of the Shanghai Climate Center, China, looked at the coupling of crop models across different spatial scales and the multi-scale evaluation of adaptive technologies locally, for different cropping regions, and China as a whole. More
Emergence of shared perception of futures in a foresight system
Mikko Dufva of the VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, studied how shared perceptions about the futures emerge in a foresight system. More
The influence of social heterogeneity and behavior onconsumer choices in the transport sector
Oreane Edelenbosch of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, analyzed how behavior of different consumer types, reflected in their vehicle choices, impacts adoption of advanced climate-friendly technologies. More
Uncertain cultural consequences of global ecologicalovershoot: How to explore future perspective change and dynamics
Lukas Figge of the Maastricht University, International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development, Netherlands, researched how culture and behavior (social values and norms) can be included in a quantitative climate change model. More
Global conservation prioritization of wetland ecosystems: Proof of concept of ahydrogeomorphic classification
Etienne Fluet-Chouinard of the Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA, presented a classification of wetland ecosystems that are biodiversity hotspots in Africa and South America. More
Development of a socio-hydrological model of Las Vegas water management
Margaret Garcia of Tufts University, USA, studied how to improve evaluation of water supply reliability alternatives using a case study of Las Vegas, USA. More
Impact of shocks on the global seafood trade network
Jessica Gephart of the University of Virginia, USA, investigated how the global seafood trade network responds to environmental and policy perturbations. More
Coupling ecological and social network models to assess“transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species
Danielle Haak of the University of Nebraska at Lincoln, USA, assessed how humans aid the movement of an aquatic species and what effects this species has on an ecosystem after introduction. More
Urban energy systems and their increasing importance in global long-term energy strategies
Miho Kamei of the University of Tokyo/National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, investigated the future role of cities in improving energy efficiency and decreasing emissions. More
Carbon capture and storage: A cultural approach to understanding experts’ views in Finland, Norway, and Germany
Farid Karimi of the Environmental Research Group (EPRG), University of Helsinki, Finland, scrutinized the implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology from the perspective of socio-cultural structures. More
Improving optimal forest management model to account for climate change
Moonil Kim of Korea University, Republic of Korea, aimed to improve the existing forest growth model and research algorithms of the G4M model so that it could be adapted to South Korea. More
Assessment of the effectiveness of Seoul Metropolitan Area’s Air Quality Management Plan
Younha Kim of the Konkuk University, Seoul, Republic of Korea, investigated the effectiveness of the Seoul Metropolitan Area’s Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP) using the GAINS-Korea framework under development at IIASA. More
Intergenerational influence on fertility preferences of young women in rural Bihar, India
Abhishek Kumar of the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, India, researched intergenerational transmission of fertility preferences in a case study in rural Bihar. More
A sufficient operating space for development? Reconciling greenhouse gas emissions, life expectancy, and access to basic needs
William Lamb of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK, sought to elaborate on the actual energy utilization and emissions necessary to achieve high development outcomes. More
An estimation of the extent of cropland abandonment in mountainous regions of China
Shengfa Li of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, estimated the amount of abandoned croplands in 2000-2010 and the future changes expected in China’s mountainous areas. More
How to improve air quality in China: A policy scenario study
Jun Liu of the College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China, explored the potential benefits in terms of air pollutant reduction through natural gas substitution strategies in power plants, residential combustion, and industrial boilers in the Jing-Jin-Ji region. More
Systemic risk of overlapping portfolios in the bank-firm credit market of Spain
Thi Luu of Kiel University, Germany, empirically analyzed the structure of the Spanish credit network, the temporal changes in it, and the systemic risk of overlapping portfolios. More
Applying the EPIC model to explain historical changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the Roige wetland, China
Kun Ma of the School of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China, used the EPIC model to estimate soil organic carbon stocks in the Roige wetland in western China. More
Vulnerability risk index of agricultural production in the Brazilian Semi-Arid
Minella Martins of the Earth System Science Center, National Institute for Space Research- CCST/INPE, Brazil, assessed the vulnerability of agricultural production in the Semi-Arid of Brazil and identified hotspots where public policies could be applied to reduce current and future risks. More
Development and application of an improved tool for renewable resource modeling in MESSAGE
Madeleine McPherson of the University of Toronto incorporated distinct time scales for the variability of renewable energy resources into the MESSAGE model. More
The Czechoslovak steel industry in a comparative perspective: From scale to efficiency
Hana Nielsen of the Department of Economic History, Lund University, Sweden, aimed to identify whether the regime change (from market to centrally planned economy) in Czechoslovakia had an impact on the domestic iron and steel industry. More
Assessing spatial and temporal patterns in heat fluxes during wet and dry extreme months using the NOAH land surface model
Irene Nilsen of the Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway, used observations to simulate heat fluxes, establish their variability across extremely dry and wet months, and compared the resulting trend in heat fluxes with temperature and precipitation trends for the same time period. More
Global agricultural monitoring and mobile data collection
Jon Nordling of the University of Maryland, College Park, USA, explored ways to utilize F-VGI (Facilitated-Volunteered Geographic Information) ground observation information, remote sensing, and GIS to gain a month-to-month understanding of production crops on a global scale. More
Reproductive fitness and differential mortality: The role of social status
Sergey Orlov of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation, looked at the question of social status seeking versus fertility in humans. More
A model of size-structured population with asymmetric competition for resource: A case study of forests
Askhad Panesh of the Adyghe State University, Russian Federation, looked at how the physiological state of individuals affects the dynamics of the population of which it is part. More
Expanding irrigated land under physical water limitation and socioeconomic constraints
Amandine Pastor of the Earth System Science Group, Wageningen University, Netherlands, compared the spatial allocation of global agricultural lands from scenarios, including water availability and environmental flow requirements, with socio-economic optimization. More
Enhancing the optimization model BeWhere by including in it the parameters “biogas generation” and “biogas used as a vehicle fuel”
Piera Patrizio of the University of Udine, Italy, developed a biogas supply chain model to identify the optimal location for installation of new biogas plants and their most ecological and profitable technology and capacity options. More
Could fertility patterns act as a driver of global migration?
Adriana Reyes of the Pennsylvania State University, USA, used a harmonized global database of international migration flows to investigate the determinants of migration with a special focus on the relationship of fertility in sending and receiving countries. More
Decomposition of SO2 and NOx emissions in the EU: Leakage or technology adoption?
Thanicha Ruangmas of the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA, investigates if emission reduction in Europe is due to adoption of pollution abatement technology or to a relocation of production to other regions. More
Governance of risks in financing concentrated solar power projects in North Africa
Thomas Schinko of the University of Graz/Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Austria, investigated the economic impacts of a financial derisking approach for concentrated solar power (CSP) in four North African countries. More
Biomass deployment strategies for the transition to a bio-based economy
Fabian Schipfer of the Vienna University of Technology/Energy Economics Group, Austria, drew up scenarios aimed at developing strategies for the integration and extension of an industry based on renewable resources. More
Signatures of speciation: From theoretical mechanisms to observable patterns
Jesper Sörensson of Lund University, Sweden, aimed at understanding how genetic signals differ between speciation scenarios. More
Ecosystem-based fisheries management of cod and sprat in the Baltic Sea
Floor Soudijn of the University of Amsterdam/Institute, Netherlands, examined predator-prey interactions to elucidate how the fishing of cod and sprat affects the Baltic Sea ecosystem. More
The institutionalization of ecosystem services in transnational policy networks
Daniel Suarez of the University of California, Berkeley, USA, examined the spread and uptake of ecosystem services approaches in global environmental governance. More
Seasonal life histories in changing environments
Zepeng Sun of the Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands, assessed how populations in seasonal environments would need to adjust their life histories in order to cope with changing seasonal patterns in their environments. More
Preferred life expectancy and how it correlates among elderly women in rural Uttar Pradesh, India
Niharika Tripathi of the International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India, examined the association between preferred life expectancy (PLE)—how long people want to live—and selected related socioeconomic characteristics in the low resource setting of rural India. More
Forest management using a recursive dynamic global partial equilibrium model
Olga Turkovska of the Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine, used information on the age structure of forest, its growth function, and forest management options (e.g., several rotation lengths), to estimate forest productivity development. More
A projection of human capital from the education and health perspectives—A case study of Beijing
Haochen Wang of the Institute of Population Research, Peking University, China, projected how human capital will change in Beijing to 2050 from the education and health perspectives in different policy scenarios. More
Analysis of a multi-factor control model for resource productivity in China
Tao Wang of the Center for Industrial Ecology, Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, China, constructed an aggregate model of China’s economy for 1980-2010 to retrospectively analyze the sensitivity of resource productivity to variations in investment scenarios. More
Assessing the capabilities of remotely sensed indicators for agricultural drought monitoring
Jie Zhang, of the Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, USA, examined the sensitivity of different MODIS-derived indicators for agricultural drought and investigated their effectiveness agricultural drought monitoring during the growing season on the Southern Great Plains of the USA. More
An urban metabolism and carbon footprint analysis of the Jing-Jin-Ji regional agglomeration
Hongmei Zheng of the School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, China, analyzed how the three regions within the Jing-Jin-Ji agglomeration interact with each other and their roles in its development. More
Further information